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Restart of the UK economy “still in first gear” with businesses operating at just half of normal capacity

Results from the latest BCC Coronavirus Business Impact Tracker in partnership with job site Indeed reveal that businesses are operating at half of their pre-Covid 19 capacity on average, despite lockdown measures easing.

More than half cited reduced demand and possible future lockdowns as major obstacles to restarting day-to-day operations.

  • On average, businesses are operating at half of their pre-Covid 19 capacity
  • Customer demand (54%) and possible future local lockdowns (52%) are the two top obstacles to maintaining day-to-day operations
  • BCC and Indeed call for swift Government action to reduce the cost of employment to protect businesses and preserve jobs

The leading business organisation’s tracker survey, which serves as a barometer of the pandemic’s impact on businesses and the effectiveness of government support measures, received 750 responses and is the largest independent survey of its kind in the UK. 

The latest tranche of polling was conducted from 6 – 10 July in partnership with global job site Indeed, prior to the Prime Minister’s announcement on 17 July, setting out the next steps in the Coronavirus response for England.

A slow restart

On average, businesses said they were at 53% of their full pre-Covid 19 capacity. Customer demand (54%) and possible future local lockdowns (52%) were cited as the top two obstacles to maintaining day-to-day operations. 30% said other business costs, such as rent or salaries, were a major obstacle.

The steep decline in business conditions seen at the start of the pandemic is levelling off, but firms still face extremely challenging conditions:

  • Almost half (46%) reported a slight or significant decrease in revenue from UK customers compared to June.
  • 44% reported a slight or significant decrease in revenue from overseas customers, with 34% reporting no change.
  • 56% of firms reported a slight or significant decrease in cashflow.

Concerningly, 43% of businesses reported an increase in late payments from customers when compared with the last six months of 2019.

Flexible furlough and redundancies

Flexible furlough, which allows businesses to bring employees back part time, began on 1 July. 31% indicated they have furloughed staff on a part-time basis, while 56% of firms surveyed said they still have staff furloughed full time.

13% of respondents said they had made redundancies since the beginning of the crisis, with 33% saying they intended to over the next three months. Redundancies were more likely in Business to Consumer businesses, which are experiencing the worst effects of a prolonged period of closure and reduced demand.

Changing business practices

Prior to the Prime Minister’s speech on 17 July encouraging more people to return to offices where they can, 62% of respondents expected some or all of their staff to be working remotely for the next 12 months. This increases to 71% for B2B, and falls to 53% for B2C firms.

Data from Indeed indicates that searches for remote work in the UK have more than doubled since the outbreak of Covid-19. When it comes to job postings explicitly mentioning remote working, the rate has increased from 3% before Covid-19 to 5% now.

Reducing the cost of employment

BCC and Indeed have called on government to act swiftly to reduce the overall cost of employment to protect business and preserve as many jobs as possible in the coming months. The two organisations have called for an 18-month expansion of the Annual Investment Allowance from £4,000 to £20,000 and an increase the threshold for employer National Insurance Contributions from £8,788 to £12,500, which could save businesses around £500 per job.

Commenting on the findings, BCC Director General Adam Marshall said:

“Our findings demonstrate that the UK’s economic restart is still very much in first gear.

“Businesses are grappling with reduced customer demand, an on-going cash crunch, and the potential for further lockdowns during an uncertain autumn and winter ahead.

“The Prime Minister’s encouragement to return to workplaces and further updates to business guidance will not be enough on their own.

“The time has come for the government to take radical steps to slash the tax burden around employment to help companies pay valued staff, rather than the Revenue. A major boost to the Employment Allowance, and an increase in the threshold for employers’ National Insurance contributions, should both be in the Chancellor’s sights if he wants to help viable companies save jobs as the furlough scheme comes to an end.”

Jack Kennedy, economist at the global job site Indeed, said:

“The slowdown in consumer activity mirrors hiring activity in the UK. Today, there are 60% fewer job postings than there were before the outbreak of Covid-19 and so far there are few signs of a V-shaped recovery in vacancies.

“The furlough scheme has been an important lifeline to millions of people but the fear is there will be a sudden rise in unemployment after that umbilical cord has been severed. With one third of companies planning redundancies over the next three months, we will likely see a scramble for available roles as the labour market becomes heavily supplied with people looking for work.

“For jobseekers looking to bounce back into the workforce, many have turned to searching for remote work in a bid to secure jobs. However, not all jobs can be performed at home and a growing proportion of people are broadening their search by looking for roles farther afield than their local area.”

Chambers respond to Prime Minister’s speech setting out next steps in Coronavirus response

Commenting on the Prime Minister’s speech today (17 July), setting out the next steps in England’s Coronavirus response, Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy for Norfolk Chambers said:

On new guidance for returning to the workplace:

“Companies, in discussion with their employees, will decide how and when to return to offices safely. But to take those decisions, businesses need crystal-clear official guidance.

“Firms across Norfolk will be weighing up how they want to work in future. Many have seen benefits to productivity and work-life balance over recent months, and will want to keep elements of their new normal.  For many employees, returning to the workplace is contingent on schools reopening, the availability of wraparound care and the capacity of public transport.

Also commenting on Boris Johnson’s speech, Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce said:

“Businesses should be able to offset the investments they make to ensure their premises are Covid-secure against their tax bill, which would help many to return to workplaces over the coming months.”

On the conditional timetable for reopening the economy:

“Businesses that have so far been unable to open will be pleased to finally have a timetable for reopening so they can plan ahead.  Government must consider what further support they can offer to firms that will need to remain closed into the autumn, beyond the end-date for government support schemes and many businesses’ cash reserves.”

On regional powers for local lockdowns:

“While tackling the public health emergency must be the priority, further local lockdowns will be a hammer blow to business communities trying to get back on their feet.

“Local lockdowns must be made more targeted, with clear statistical triggers and an exit strategy to help businesses plan ahead. More financial support must be available to the hardest hit firms forced to close for an additional period.”

On a new testing target of 500,000 per day:

“Business will welcome an increased target for testing as we move into a new phase of managing the pandemic.

“Only a truly comprehensive test and trace system that works across the UK will boost business, staff and consumer confidence, which is the key to securing our economic recovery.” 

Chambers/Totaljobs: Almost a third of firms will decrease size of workforce in next three months

Results from the BCC’s Quarterly Recruitment Outlook, in partnership with Totaljobs, reveal the impact Coronavirus has had on the jobs market, with the two organisations calling for further action from government to protect businesses and jobs.

  • 29% of businesses expect to decrease the size of their workforce in the next three months
  • 28% decreased size of workforce in Q2 but 66% kept their workforce constant, reinforcing the success of the Job Retention Scheme
  • The two organisations call for a cut in employer National Insurance Contributions to protect businesses and jobs.

The leading business organisation’s landmark survey, which serves as a barometer of the UK labour market, received 7,400 responses and is the largest of its kind in the UK.

Fieldwork was done prior to the Chancellor’s Summer Statement which announced the Job Retention Bonus, Kickstart Scheme and an Apprenticeship Recovery programme, among other things.

Redundancies expected

29% of businesses expect to decrease the size of their workforce in the next three months before the government’s Job Retention Scheme ends, the highest on record. 59% will keep headcount the same and just 12% will look to increase the size of their workforce.

The news comes as businesses across the UK economy announced significant redundancies. The survey found that over the next three months:

  • 18% of micro firms (with fewer than 10 employees) expect their workforce to decrease.
  • 41% of small and medium firms (with 10 to 249 employees) expect their workforce to decrease.
  • 41% of large firms (with over 250 employees) expect their workforce to decrease.

The survey reinforced data from the BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey of the challenging environment business communities across the UK are facing, with record falls in key indicators of business activity, including domestic and export sales, cashflow and investment.

Recruitment

The percentage of businesses attempting to recruit in the previous quarter fell to 25%, the lowest level on record. Of the firms that attempted to recruit, 65% faced recruitment difficulties, particularly for skilled manual/technical or managerial roles.

Success of the Job Retention Scheme

While 28% of respondents decreased their workforce in Q2, two in three firms kept staffing levels constant. This reflects data on the success of the Job Retention Scheme, with the BCC’s Business Impacts Tracker indicating that around 70% of businesses had furloughed a portion of their staff.

Beginnings of recovery?

As lockdown lifts, Totaljobs have seen a 30% month-on-month increase in the number of jobs being advertised on their website for June, with the largest volume posted in IT (20k), logistics (12k) and social care (9k).

There were also month on month increases in sectors benefiting from lockdown easing like retail (+51%), travel (+47%) and hospitality (+23%). Skilled trades also started to see growth compared with previous weeks, with jobs advertised increasing by 57%.

Unsurprisingly, applications per vacancy were up across all sectors, reflecting continued rises in candidate activity on the Totaljobs site.

Further action needed

The two organisations have called on the government for further action to limit the damage to the UK labour market, including reducing the overall cost of employment, through a temporary cut in employer National Insurance Contributions and support to upskill and reskill employees as businesses adapt to change.

BCC Co-Executive Director Hannah Essex said:

“Our research demonstrates the Chancellor’s focus on protecting, supporting and creating jobs is exactly what’s needed to drive the UK’s economic recovery in the coming months.

“Many businesses are suffering from an historic cash crunch and reduced demand, meaning firms will still face tough decisions despite welcome interventions made in the Summer Statement.

“The government should consider additional support for employers before the Autumn Budget to reduce the overall cost of employment and prevent substantial redundancies. Measures could include a temporary cut in employer National Insurance Contributions and support to upskill and reskill employees as businesses adapt to change.”

Totaljobs CEO Jon Wilson said:

“The latest figures from the Quarterly Recruitment Outlook make stark reading, especially when compared to what we had grown accustomed to in previous years. It is clear that business confidence is low, with many being forced to make difficult decisions when it comes to their workforce.

However, the Chancellor’s summer statement outlined a number of measures that will not only support jobs but help create new roles in the economy and give confidence to businesses trying to plan for the future. The interim cuts in stamp duty and VAT should give the hard-hit housing and hospitality sectors a much-needed boost.

It’s clear that moving forward, adaptability remains paramount for businesses and people, with upskilling, reskilling and utilising transferable skills all key factors during this recovery period. To protect jobs and further ease the burden facing businesses, we join the British Chambers of Commerce in their call for a cut in employer National Insurance. We also urge the Chancellor to continue to consider the needs of the sectors and demographics most impacted by Covid-19, to protect people’s livelihoods and help the jobs market and wider economy pick up.”

Chambers comment on launch of UK Internal Market White Paper

The UK Internal Market White Paper sets out policy options to protect the flow of goods and services across the UK borders between England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales after the end of transition period.

Commenting on the government’s launch of the white paper and associated consultation, BCC Director General Adam Marshall said:

“Businesses in all four nations of the UK will want to examine the detail of these proposals.

“No business should have to face additional costs when trading between the four nations of the UK, now or into the future. The UK government and the devolved administrations must work together to create a clear framework that gives businesses in every nation of the UK the same opportunities to trade and compete following the end of the transition period.

“A fragmented system would create additional costs, bureaucracy and supply chain challenges that could disrupt operations for firms across the UK.

“As these proposals progress, business communities will want practical considerations – not politics – at the heart of the debate.”

Chambers respond to the government’s proposed border controls after the transition period

Commenting on the government’s new proposed processes for moving goods from the UK to the EU from January 1st 2021, published today, BCC Director General Dr Adam Marshall said:

“With full border controls in place at all ports from January 1st next year, regardless of any deal that is agreed with the EU, and an estimated 200 million more declarations needed to be made by traders annually, firms that import and export to the EU should take action now and prioritise the appointment of customs intermediaries to advise on the next steps.

“It is pleasing to see the government listening to the Chamber network and reintroducing Postponed VAT Accounting, as well as allowing the deferment of duty and VAT on EU imports for at least 6 months from January 2020. And many businesses will appreciate the introduction of bond-free duty deferment accounts, which will provide much needed help to cashflow for businesses and reduce import costs.

“While businesses will welcome more detail on processes for trading goods overseas, some questions still remain unanswered, including on trade across the Northern Ireland border and the operation of the Goods Vehicle Management System. We will continue to look at the detail and how it affects businesses over the coming weeks.”

Chambers respond to mandatory face coverings in shops and supermarkets

Commenting on the government’s announcement that wearing a face covering will be mandatory in shops and supermarkets in England from 24 July, Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy for Norfolk Chambers, said:

“Businesses need clarity on the approach to the wearing of face coverings that is consistent and supported by public health evidence. Shops and other indoor businesses need to know what the new rules are as soon as possible.

“Updated guidance, including on enforcement, should be issued swiftly so firms can maintain their Covid-secure status and continue their operations successfully.”

Government’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme starts today for businesses

From today (Monday 13 July) businesses can register for the Government’s “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme.

Under the scheme, announced by the Chancellor in his Economic Statement, diners receiving a government-backed discount on food and non-alcoholic drinks to eat in at participating venues.

It will be available Monday to Wednesday from 3 to 31 August 2020. Diners will receive a 50 per cent discount, up to a maximum of £10 per person, with the venue able to claim back to money from the Government.

To participate, firms must sell food for immediate consumption on the premises and have been registered as a food business with the relevant local authority on or before 7 July.

Find out more and register here.

Latest information on re-opening and travel (England Only)

There were several announcements last week on the reopening of some sectors and also changes to travel. 

Late last week, the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, Oliver Dowden MP announced three phases of reopening for some, but not all, English businesses.

Phase one – 11 July

Phase one of the reopening relates to a relatively small section of the leisure sector: open air swimming pools. Review the guidance for operators, including:

  • limiting the number of people within the facility and pool itself, perhaps by using a mandatory online booking system;
  • managing how people move through the facility;
  • enhanced cleaning; and
  • encouragement to shower and change at home, wherever possible (staff and customers).

A number of other leisure facilities may be reopened from the 25 July (see below).

In addition, from the 11 July some open air cultural performances can take place, including gigs, festivals and concerts, but only where they have a ‘limited and socially distanced audience’.

Phase two – 13 July

Phase two of the reopening relates to some, but not all, of the remaining ‘close contact’ facilities – including beauty services, (clothes) tailoring and sports and massage therapists.

This is different to other sectors, as the requirement for reopening is based on the type of service rather than the type of business. For example, a salon that offers one permitted and one forbidden service can open, but only deliver the permitted service. Forbidden services are those which require close proximity to the face. There is no exhaustive list, but some of the forbidden services include:

  • face waxing;
  • eyebrow threading;
  • eyelash treatments; and
  • some (‘intricate’) beard services

Review the guidance on close contact working. This is similar to guidance issued for those close contact services already reopened e.g. hair salons using face shields, social distancing etc.

Phase three – 25 July

Phase three will see many indoor fitness facilities reopen, including indoor pools, gyms and fitness and dance studios. Please note that the guidance is the same as above.

Remaining sectors

There are a number of sectors which have not been given a date to open (in addition to the beauty services above) including:

  • Nightclubs, dance halls, discotheques;
  • Casinos;
  • Sexual entertainment venues and hostess bars;
  • Bowling alleys;
  • Indoor skating rinks;
  • Indoor play areas, including soft-play areas; and
  • Exhibition halls or conference centres which must remain closed for events such as exhibitions or conferences, other than for those who work for the business or organisation who run the venue.

Please note that, whilst theatres can technically open, indoor plays, concert gigs etc. cannot be held until further notice – there is current no timetable for when decisions on further reopening might be taken.

Travel Quarantine – England

In England, the quarantine rules for incoming passengers from around 70 countries/overseas territories have been suspended, although there may be reciprocal requirements still in place for those travelling abroad. Review the list of countries with these (potentially one-way only) ‘travel corridors’, with the most obvious omissions being the USA and Canada. Be careful about stopovers and review the guidance

Chambers respond to the further easing of lockdown restrictions in the leisure, arts and beauty sectors

Businesses including beauty salons, nail bars and tattoo studios can reopen safely from Monday 13 July.  Whilst outdoor pools can reopen to the public from 11 July followed by indoor gyms, pools and leisure centres on 25 July

Commenting on the government’s announcement that some firms in England in the leisure, arts and beauty sectors will be allowed to reopen, Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy for Norfolk Chambers said:

“Businesses in the leisure and beauty industries and many in the arts sector will be relieved to finally have a timetable for reopening and can now plan for the future.

“With changes to the furlough scheme coming at the beginning of next month, a provisional timetable for reopening is still required for firms that remain fully or partially closed and face tough decisions on the viability of their business.

“Firms given the green light to reopen will be taking a safe, proportionate and risk-based approach to returning to work, in close consultation with their staff. For many this will be an entirely new way of operating as they apply guidance to the on the ground realities of their business.

“HSE and local authorities should support businesses as they seek to comply with the new rules – and reserve new enforcement powers for the tiny minority of businesses who are wilfully disobeying or ignoring their obligations.”

Check-In with Thyngs

Strengthen customer satisfaction, increase productivity, reduce costs, and never rely on paper and pen.

Thyngs has introduced an efficient, GDPR compliant, and touch-free customer check-in solution for Businesses and Cities to operate alongside NHS Track & Trace.

Using upgraded venue signage and smart marketing material given by Thyngs, merchants are able to setup the secure Check-in service in a matter of hours. All customers need to do is open their smartphone camera and scan the Check-in signage to digitally submit the contact details required. Check-in is complete in less than 1 minute.        

Merchants also have access to an online portal that will search and extract data to support NHS Track & Trace enquiries, effortlessly. All of the data is GDPR compliant and handled automatically, with personal information being automatically deleted after 21 days. 

The platform is simple for businesses and customers to use:

  • Customers check-in on arrival, safe and efficiently. From a 1 metre distance, customers scan a QR code and submit their contact details in less than 1 minute.
  • After a visit, should a customer test positive for Covid-19, NHS Test and Trace will get in touch with the venue to advise a customer has tested positive.
  • The venue will then supply NHS Test and Trace with the customer data of anyone who was at the venue in the affected time period.
  • Customer reports on the portal, including useful information such as time of arrival, are ready to be downloaded quickly if this case occurs.
  • Using the venue’s data, NHS Test and Trace will contact customers to advise they may be at risk of catching the virus.

Benefits

  • Venue has a contactless way of collecting and holding customer GDPR compliant data securely.
  • Any business using the contact-free platform will have the necessary data to efficiently and securely share with NHS Track and Trace.
  • With the exact data they need, NHS Track and Trace can contact customers who may be a risk quickly.
  • Any business using the touch-free check-in also has the option to include a data opt-in button for marketing on the same form.
  • Upgrade options for Merchants to include Digital Menus, loyalty stamp cards and instant ordering.
  • Proven platform used by brands like Wasabi, MacMillan, Conde Nast and Archant.

How much does it cost?

Setup of the software is free, and is between £10 – £30 per month (depending on the package and size of your business) thereafter. Find out more about Check-In with Thyngs, here

A quote from Hayley-Elizabeth Evans, Mr Postles Apothecary Norwich

“Being a local independent business ourselves we understand the importance of local support and therefore always endeavour to support other local businesses.  With this in mind when Thyngs approached us with their check in solution for the Track and Trace we straightaway thought if they tick all the boxes we would be more than happy to work with them.   Our two main concerns with signing in for the track and trace was ensuring we met all legal compliance’s whilst also having an easy and efficient way for our customers to check in upon entering our cocktail bar and restaurant.

Thyngs took all this worry away by offering a hassle free system which did everything we needed, they even had a space on the home page for us to add in our “expected behaviour” for the customer to agree too before checking in. This literally took a couple of emails and calls to implement, the guys at Thyngs literally took care of all our needs.

Implementing this system not only took away a lot of stress for us upon reopening with all the new guidelines in place, but also allowed our customers to feel safe and looked after.  Our opening weekend ran smoothly with this system in place and no one had any issues using the QR code. I would therefore highly recommend Thyngs to other businesses requiring a track and trace system.”

About Thyngs

Thyngs delivers solutions that use frictionless smartphone technology to help its clients drive improved forms of consumer engagement that are fit for a digital, cashless, and COVID-19 world. Thyngs helps brands develop and monitor their offline marketing by turning any product, packaging, or advertisement into an interactive customer-facing experience or sale, without the need for human intervention.

Digital experiences can be anything from a customer making an instant payment or donation to unlocking exclusive content, collecting a digital loyalty stamp or entering a competition. The Thyngs Platform allows businesses to measure all of the physical-world interactions with their audience in real-time, showing unique insights that help improve the delivery of customer experience moving forward.

To learn more, please visit: thyngs.net

Chancellor unveils recovery support in Summer Economic Statement

Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has today unveiled a series of measures as part of the Government’s three phase recovery programme: Protection, Jobs, and Rebuild.

  • Kickstart Scheme for 16 – 24 Year olds
  • £1k bonus for employers who return furloughed workers
  • 5% VAT on hospitality and tourism
  • Eat Out to Help Out Voucher Scheme for August

Commenting on his lunchtime announcement, Nova Fairbank, Head of Policy, Norfolk Chambers of Commerce said:

“Norfolk businesses will welcome many of the measures outlined in the Chancellor’s Summer Economic Update.  The Kickstart Scheme will help young people between the ages of 16 – 24 who at the greatest risk of long-term unemployment.  The scheme will help firms create and support thousands of opportunities for young people, maintaining their access to the job market and driving the UK’s economic recovery. 

“As the majority of Norfolk employers are facing vastly reduced business demand, the £1,000 bonus for employers per to return furloughed workers, whilst a nice incentive, may not make enough difference for them to financially be able to justify bringing back all of their furloughed workers. 

“The sectors hardest hit in our region by the Coronavirus were the hospitality and tourism sectors.  They will be pleased with the cut in VAT on food, accommodation and attractions to 5%.   They will also be very interested to receive more information on the ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ Voucher scheme, which will run throughout August.  Any business wanting to take part will need to register and a new website will be open for businesses to apply from next Monday.

“Including the investment of £1billion for the DWP to provide advice and support for those facing unemployment; the Green Homes Grants, which will help create additional green jobs; and the cut in Stamp Duty, Rishi Sunak has made a good start to helping the UK economy and the business communities to recover from the unprecedented financial shock of the Coronavirus.  However all of these measures must form part of a wider plan to boost business confidence and protect livelihoods as we restart, rebuild and renew the UK economy.”

Chambers respond to the government’s Kickstart Scheme

Commenting on the announcement of the government’s Kickstart Scheme, allowing employers to offer government-subsidised work placements for young people aged between 16-24 who are claiming Universal Credit and at risk of long-term unemployment, BCC Co-Executive Director Claire Walker said:

“The Kickstart Scheme will help firms create and support thousands of opportunities for young people, maintaining their access to the job market and driving the UK’s economic recovery.

“The Chancellor has responded to our calls to prioritise work experience and job opportunities for those entering the world of work at a particularly challenging time. The Chamber network stands ready to work with government on the detail of the scheme to ensure it is successfully delivered on the ground.

“This announcement must form part of a wider plan to boost business confidence and protect livelihoods as we restart, rebuild and renew the UK economy.”