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Chamber News

Nova Fairbank, COO on 2021, B2B and Talking Tech

As we say goodbye to, what has to be, in anyone’s book, a particularly challenging year, you have to marvel at what the Norfolk business community have achieved.  Despite the pandemic, lockdowns, partial lockdowns, reduced staffing levels due to illness and tough financial positions, we are in awe of the resilience and fortitude of the businesses and their teams across Norfolk. It’s very easy to forget that at the heart of any business, whether you are an engineering company, or a digital marketing agency, it’s all about the people.  The people, their skills and their attitude will make the difference between a successful business and not. The Chambers remit is to connect, support and give voice to every business – our team engages daily with lots and lots of enthusiastic and knowledgeable people, who are central to everything we do.  It is your expertise, thought leadership and brilliance that we are broadcasting, using our website, social media and digital media platforms, such as our podcast, Norfolk’s Voice and The Norfolk Knowledge Hub. Our biggest asset is our ability to collaborate with businesses and this is visible at our flagship events like Talking Tech and B2B.  As a result of the pandemic, Talking Tech 2021 was the Chambers’ first large scale face to face conference in nearly 19 months.  We were so pleased to welcome so many different businesses and real, live, actual people, despite having to scale back to be covid secure.  The expertise and knowledge from our speakers was amazing – as was the enthusiasm and engagement of all those who attended.  We also used Talking Tech 2021 to help Norfolk County Council launch their Digital Strategy – which aims to make Norfolk the best-connected rural county in the UK. By far our biggest and most collaborative event was B2B 2021.  This exhibition is a huge undertaking, made even more challenging, when trying to deliver it during a pandemic.  It usually takes 6 – 9 months to plan and execute.  In July 2021, the government announced that large scale events could take place – that gave us just 3 months to deliver B2B, but we were determined! With a huge amount of effort from our superb Chambers team; a collaboration with Huxley Events, to support the actual delivery; and critically, the enthusiasm, dedication and ‘can do’ attitude of every single one of our 120 exhibitors – the event was totally and utterly brilliant.  It demonstrated community spirit and the wide-spread support of the Norfolk business community, but most of all, it was about people supporting and engaging people. ‘What You Need is What We Do’ and our brilliant Chambers team will continue to deliver the engagement, support and connections you need in 2022.  We have The Big Debate coming up in early February.  In the last few weeks we have been asking you what are the 4 topics you want to debate?  So far, the front runners include: People & Skills, Transport & Infrastructure and Climate Change.   You still can influence this, as the survey is open until Christmas Eve.  We very much look forward to bringing you some amazing and thought-provoking speakers and panellists. What else is coming in 2022?  Our new website; more technology innovation to support our members; lots more thought leadership from across the business community; greater engagement and lots of networking throughout the whole of Norfolk; and most of all we will be listening and engaging with you, our customers. We wish you all a Merry Christmas and a safe, prosperous and Happy New Year. Nova

Brexit – One Year On: Forthcoming GB/EU Border Changes

We are coming up on the one year anniversary of Brexit, when the UK left the European Union.  The UK left the Brexit standstill transition period on its expiry on Friday 1 January 2021. The terms of the new EU-UK trading arrangements – in the Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) – took effect the same day. In accordance with this, the EU decided to introduce full border controls on GB goods from Friday 1 January 2021.  The UK government decided to defer the implementation of inbound GB border controls in respect of EU goods. That deferment period is set to end on 31 December 2021 and Customs and Border controls on EU goods will be phased in from Saturday 1 January 2022. Commenting on the forthcoming border changes, Nova Fairbank, Chief Operating Officer for Norfolk Chambers said: “The cost of importing and exporting has increased considerably since Brexit in January 2021.  We have also seen a reduction in the volume of import and exports between the UK and the EU.  The Norfolk business community have persevered and in the main, managed to get a handle on the requirements for importing and exporting their goods between the UK and the EU. “However, the last 12 months have been a transition period, but from 01 January 2022, there will be a significant tightening of the rules and some very important changes. “Changes include, when moving goods from the EU to the UK – you will now need to have completed the paperwork before the goods arrive at the UK border and we understand that we should expect approx. 351 tariff amendments, so you need to check your commodity codes.  There will also be a new Goods Vehicle Movement System introduced and EU customers and suppliers will need to register for the UK database IPAFFS to pre-notify on plant and products of animal origin. “It is vitally important that businesses understand the forthcoming changes and implement them correctly to avoid incurring delays and to enable their goods to be imported and exported across the GB/EU borders smoothly.  Use our business checklist to understand what you need to do and to find the links to the new systems being introduced.” Click here to view the business checklist for the GB/EU border changes in 2022. Photo credit: Photo Images/ Chamber Canva Pro 2022

Chambers welcomes Australia trade agreement

Commenting on news of an Australia-UK trade agreement, BCC Head of Trade Policy, William Bain, said: “Businesses will welcome this confirmation that the Australia-UK trade agreement has been finalised. There are opportunities for exporters in a new speedier customs process, zero tariffs on the vast majority of UK exports, improved market access on services, free flow of data and generous provisions on labour mobility for under 35s for up to 3 years. “We will carefully examine the draft text of the trade agreement but look forward to it being in force by the middle of 2022. The key test of the success of this agreement will be the value it delivers in practice for small and medium sized businesses in the UK looking to export. “Accredited Chambers of Commerce also look forward to working with the Department for International Trade to bring this deal to life for businesses and support them in taking advantage of the opportunities it presents.” David McCredie, the CEO of the Australian British Chamber of Commerce which represents the interests of 25,000 businesses engaged in trade across the two countries said: “The potential impact is huge. This Free Trade Agreement is one of the most ambitious agreements signed by Australia and reflects the strength of historical and ongoing trading ties between the two nations. “While we have all heard of the impact on agriculture and trade, our members and I are hugely encouraged by the provisions which address issues of skilled and experienced workers, the growing need to address digital aspects and the potential for cross-border investment.” Key elements of the FTA:

  • Zero-tariff, zero-quotas on vast majority of UK exports to Australia from Day 1 the agreement is in force. Tariffs on whisky, gin & wine – abolished.
  • In the UK, will be lengthy transition period over 15 years on tariffs on certain Australian agri-food imports to safeguard UK domestic producers. Tariff rate quotas will be applied over the transition period.
  • Provides market access into Australian industrial products markets for UK goods from Day 1 in force.
  • On professional services – accountancy, legal – considerably improved market access, on business travel and terms & conditions of access. Mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Market access provided unless dealt with in reservations.
  • Reciprocal labour mobility scheme for under 35s for up to 3 years. Also reciprocal removal of economic needs tests on sponsor visas. Balanced guarantees that are broadly reciprocal to maintain visa pathways for service suppliers for a substantial number of sectors.
  • Equivalence on SPS measures – allowing for digital Export Health Certificates to be used.
  • Government procurement opportunities expanded.
  • Agreement provides for free flow of data, e-contracts and deepens co-operation on AI and cyber-security.
  • SME chapter provisions focuses on tangible measures to make trade happen – sharing best practice on trade programmes, having dedicated tariff websites, and setting maximum time 48 hours for goods to be in customs transit.
  • Climate – Paris commitments referred to in sustainability chapter and have retained rights to regulate.
  • Digital trade chapter will facilitate trade in goods and improve speed of movement through customs processes (48 hours).
  • Specific annexes in agreement on medical devices (plus a side letter) and cosmetics. Agreement on co-operation on veterinary medicines.

  Photo credit: Pexels/ Chamber Canva Pro 2022

A word from our CEO, Chris Sargisson on 2021

A word as the year draws to a close and boy, what a tough year it’s been, my two ‘all embracing’ words to every brilliant Norfolk businesses are ‘thank you’. Thank you for all your positivity, stamina, continued fortitude and support for others. Brilliant, brilliant you. Thank you, because Chambers only works when we able to match the energy you create. We grab it in all its forms, amplify it, share it and the region benefits as a direct result. When I look back over the year, all I see day after day is thousands of people in the widest range of businesses bouncing back with smiles and enthusiasm. Willingly sharing essential knowledge and heart felt experiences via our knowledge hubs though to selling out the widest range of networking events, conferences and our flagship B2B event. I mean, who knew that the greatest recovery for lockdown blues would be paddleboarding? So then, what’s coming in 2022?  Building on our theme of ‘What you need is what we do’ we have a whole raft of innovations ‘popping out’ next year. For example, a dynamic replacement for our very old website is launching. This new customer centric web platform is powered by a replacement of our even older CRM system. Both built during lockdown using Norfolk businesses. This substantial investment will, for the first time allow is to truly innovate the chambers digital offering for at least the next 5 years. Also two new unique initiatives to mention, starting with the Business Climate Leaders program ‘A free to access programme for every business, designed to educate, enable and support SMEs to seek, understand and apply appropriate, tested actions and activities that will put them on the path to Net Zero’. The aspect of this programme that I love the most is, that success starts with each business who wishes start, or further develop their Net Zero journey, elects their own Business Climate Leader. That elected person will act as the organisation’s key point of contact and will work directly with and within the BCL Programme and with other climate leaders to get that organisation on their Net Zero journey and help keep them on track. (back to chambers matching the energy you put in). Secondly, Co.next. Launcing now to provide a structured, inclusive, collaborative, vibrant and Norfolk wide approach to supporting working professionals under the age of 35 with appropriate and engaging knowledge and networking programs. Oh yes, and of course heaps more business led support, events, knowledge hours, engagements all delivered by your amazing chamber team. So, enough of my ‘mardeling’s’ Happy Christmas everyone, I raise a glass to you all and it the spirit of the region we work in, ‘ You all keep ‘a troshing’

Businesses impacted by rising Covid cases

Baroness Ruby McGregor-Smith, CBE, President of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “The need for the Chief Medical Officer to advise the public to ‘de-prioritise social contacts’ at the Prime Minister’s press conference last week will almost certainly have an enormous impact for businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector. Despite this we still heard no news of any new financial support measures coming from Government to help those businesses, and others badly affected by the current restrictions. “With the UK recording its highest ever number of Covid cases in a single day on 15 December, and this being set to rise further in the coming days and weeks, businesses now face the two-punch combination of serious issues with staff absence and plummeting consumer confidence. “Until now the Treasury has stepped up at every stage of this crisis to help offset restrictions that limited business’ ability to trade fully, which is what makes its complete absence at this crucial moment all the more baffling. “Businesses have heard nothing from the Treasury since this new round of Covid interventions arrived over a week ago. Not even a rationale has been provided for why it believes no new support is required. They deserve better. “Many of these firms, who have survived nearly two years of challenging trading conditions, are now seeing their vital festive income melt away in front of their eyes. “A great number of sectors have been impacted by these restrictions already and the number of firms at risk is growing every day. The Treasury knows what can be done, we have already written with a suite of policy measures they can put in place right now to alleviate this crisis.”

Chambers comment on latest ONS figures

Commenting on the inflation statistics for November 2021, published today by the Office for National Statistics, Head of Economics at the BCC Suren Thiru, said: “The ONS latest figures confirms that the surge in inflation continued unabated in November. “The increase largely reflected higher fuel prices and strong base effects which pushed up clothing and footwear prices in comparison with November 2020. Stronger growth in producer prices points to an acceleration of cost pressures in supply chains, indicating that inflation will drift higher over the coming months. “It is concerning that inflation is outpacing wages and if this disparity continues to increase as we predict, real household incomes will be squeezed further, dampening consumer spending, and weakening overall economic activity. “Inflationary pressures are expected to intensify in the near term as the rising cost of imported raw materials, higher energy prices and the reversal of the VAT reduction for hospitality and tourism drives inflation materially higher by the middle of 2022. “Omicron could accelerate the current surge in inflation if restrictions in the UK and overseas to combat the new variant triggers more supply chain disruption. “Despite surging inflation, a December interest rate rise remains improbable given concerns over Omicron. While rates will rise sooner rather than later, with the current inflationary spike mostly driven by global supply constraints and price pressures, higher rates will do little to curb further price rises. “Greater support is immediately needed for those businesses impacted by Plan B, including making additional grant funding available and reverting the VAT for hospitality and tourism back to its emergency rate of 5%.” Photo credit: Getty Images/ Chamber Canva Pro 2022

Chamber calls for business support for Norfolk & Suffolk Skills & Careers Festival

09 and 10 March 2022 Royal Norfolk Showground, Costessey, Norfolk, NR5 0TT The Norfolk & Suffolk Skills and Careers Festival is back for another interactive event aimed at young people to help inspire them for their future career and to demonstrate the various options available. Groups from schools and colleges will arrive in organised time slots throughout the two-day festival. Individuals are welcome to attend too. The event aims to attract 7,500 visitors. Commenting on the event, Andrea Wilson said: “This is a great opportunity for Norfolk busineses to get involved.  You can connect with Norfolk and Suffolk’s young people – your potential future workforce, both to demonstrate and talk about the key skills involved in your sector and to break down unhelpful myths. The Festival will provide a platform to connect with talented youngsters who could become gifted prospective employees.” The Festival will be structured around thirteen sectors including: Energy, Advanced Manufacturing, ICT – Digital & Creative, Financial & Business Services, Leisure, Tourism & Culture, Food &Farming, Science & Innovation, Health & Social Care, Construction, Logistics, Education & Training, Public Services, Retail, and Enterprise & Careers advice. The Festival is run on a not for profit basis and the organising partners include: Norfolk County Council, Royal Norfolk Agricultural Association, Archant, City College Norwich, Easton College, Beacon East, Norfolk Chambers of Commerce, New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership and Norwich School. COVID Information: Please be aware the organsiers will be enlarging the spacing between exhibitors, increasing ventilation in the venue, providing sanitising stations and face coverings will be recommended. To book your stand click here to complete the booking form. For more information, please click here.

Get Ready Now! One Month Until New Import Controls Come Into Force

Action for Importers – new requirements for importing products of animal origin (POAO) and animal by-products (ABP) from the European Union (EU) to Great Britain (GB) Following the Government announcement in September 2021 that certain EU to GB Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) import controls will begin from 1 July 2022, we want to remind you of the requirements that will still come into force from 1 January 2022. Whilst certification, documentary, ID and physical checks, by commodity groups for products of animal origin, animal by-products, plant and plant products, will be introduced in three phases between July and November 2022, the requirement for pre-notifying consignments starts on 1 January 2022. From 1 January 2022, businesses importing products of animal origin, animal by-products and high risk foods not of animal origin (HRFNAO) must pre-notify consignments at least four hours in advance of arriving into Great Britain. The pre-notification must be made via the Import of products, animals, food and feed system (IPAFFS). To help you get ready for these new requirements we have incorporated key information you need into this document. Please take the time to read and understand the actions needed to continue importing from the EU into GB from 1 January 2022. Additionally, you can refer to the Border Operating Model for further information. You can view and download the Border Operating Model below  20211117_november_bordersopmodel_final.pdf

Chambers comment on Prime Minister’s Plan B Restrictions

Baroness Ruby McGregor-Smith, CBE, President of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “We have been calling on the UK Government for several months to set out what contingency plans for business would look like if further restrictions were needed this winter. Yet again, firms are now being asked to make changes at the very last minute. Restrictions will also impact on consumer behaviour with knock on effects which could risk the fragile recovery, order books and revenues. “Many businesses have only just begun to get back on their feet and this move will inevitably damage business confidence. Critically, firms need to know that the Government will support them through this next period. “The Government must once again stand shoulder to shoulder with business and provide a package of support to ensure that we get through a challenging winter without serious damage to our economic recovery.” On Work From Home “A return to advice that staff should work from home ‘where they can’ will come at a huge cost to swathes of businesses. “While many firms now have well established remote or hybrid working practices, which will provide some resilience, there will be many more that will be badly affected by reduced footfall in our towns and city centres. “This will impact on business revenues at a time when many needed to have a prosperous festive season.  We need to have grant support in place for all firms affected and their supply chains.” On Covid Passports “We need to immediately see full details from Government of how businesses will be expected to implement this policy. “Chamber businesses have told us repeatedly that this could prove difficult to implement and police effectively without comprehensive support and clear guidance. The full backing of Government and authorities is needed in enforcing this policy which can often put staff at risk of harassment or even violence. “In addition, they will need to understand urgently where legal responsibility for compliance with the policy sits. Businesses will have a strong preference for legal responsibility to sit with individuals to comply, as it does with facemasks.” “Firms will also want early clarity on whether booster shots will play any part in the scheme.” On Self Isolation Changes “We welcome the pragmatic step to allow contacts of Omicron cases to leave self-isolation per daily negative lateral flow test results. This will give businesses providing critical services a chance to maintain staff levels at a time when these are already strained by labour shortages and will help to avoid another ‘pingdemic’.”

Government’s Plan B Coronavirus Restrictions in England

Yesterday, the UK government announced that it has moved to Plan B Coronavirus restrictions in England. See BCC’s response to the announcement here. The key measures to note include: From Friday 10 December: The legal requirement to wear a face mask has been extended to most public indoor venues, including theatres and cinemas. There will be exemptions where it is not practical, such as when eating, drinking, exercising and singing. From Monday 13 December: The re-introduction of working from home where possible. Employers were advised to use the rest of week to discuss arrangements with employees. Where employees have to go to their workplace, they are advised to reduce contacts to reduce transmission. From Wednesday 15 December: The NHS Covid Pass will be mandatory for entry into nightclubs and venues where large crowds gather. This includes unseated indoor venues with more than 500 people, unseated outdoor venues with more than 4,000 people and any venue with more than 10,000 people. The NHS Covid Pass can still be obtained with two doses of the vaccine, but this will be kept under review as the boosters roll out. Alternatively, a negative lateral flow test can be shown. There would be a small number of exemptions for medical reasons and for those on clinical trials. Businesses can download the NHS Pass Verifier which will scan someone’s vaccine passport and hold the data within the NHS, so removing any barrier or GDPR concern. Daily tests will be introduced for Omicron contacts rather than self-isolation to keep people safe while minimising the disruption to daily life.

BCC Forecast: Trade to drag on the recovery as supply disruption weakens outlook

The UK economy will grow at a slower pace than expected with trade set to lag significantly behind the wider recovery, according to the British Chambers of Commerce’s (BCC) latest economic forecast. UK Economic Outlook – 2021 The leading business group has downgraded its expectations for UK GDP growth in 2021 from 7.1% to 6.8%. The downgrade reflects the expectation that the UK’s economic recovery will stall in the final quarter of 2021. However, GDP growth of 6.8% would still be the strongest outturn since official records began in 1949.1 following the historic contraction of 9.7% in 2020. Following GDP growth of 1.3% in Q3, UK GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.5% in Q4 2021, as staff shortages, supply chain disruption and rising inflation stifle activity. Concern over the Omicron variant is also expected to weigh on Q4 growth by triggering some hesitancy among consumers to socialise and spend. Consequently, the UK economy is only expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in Q2 2022, one quarter later than predicted in the BCC’s previous forecast. UK Economic Outlook – 2022 GDP growth is now projected to slow down by more than expected to 4.2% in 2022, from our previous forecast of 5.2%. The 2022 downgrade largely reflects a softer outlook for consumer spending as the squeeze on incomes from high inflation limits the gains from an increasingly robust labour market and the anticipated running down of household savings built-up during lockdowns. That said, consumer spending is still expected to be the main driver of the UK economy next year. The downgrade also reflects the anticipated squeeze on activity from ongoing staff shortages, supply chain disruption and rising cost pressures. Manufacturing is expected to be the worst hit with output growth revised downwards by 2.1 percentage points for 2022, followed by construction (revised down by 0.9 percentage points). Trade Trade is forecast to make a negative contribution to UK GDP over the forecast period. UK exports are forecast to decline by 2.8% this year and remain 14.9% (£27.7 billion) lower than their pre-pandemic level by the end of the forecast period in Q4 2023. In contrast, overall UK GDP is projected to be 3.4% higher than its pre-pandemic level by the end of the forecast period. This reflects the challenging outlook for UK exporters amid the ongoing disruption to international trade flows from Covid and continued post-Brexit disruption to trade with the EU. Inflation and Interest Rates The rising cost of imported raw materials and higher energy prices, are expected to lift CPI inflation to a peak of 5.2% in Q2 2022, which if realised would be the highest rate since September 2011. However, if the current global supply chain disruption eases in the second half of 2022 as assumed in the BCC’s latest forecast, inflation is expected to drift back towards the Bank of England’s 2% target by the middle of 2023. UK interest rates are projected to remain on hold at next week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting with concerns over the impact of the Omicron variant on the economy likely to delay the anticipated rate hike. Two interest rate rises are forecast over 2022 – 15 percentage points in February 2022 and 25 percentage points in November 2022. A further 25 percentage points interest rate rise is expected in 2023, thereby fully reversing the pandemic response interest rate cuts in March 2020. The BCC forecast assumes no renewal of lockdown restrictions. The reintroduction of such measures would lead to revisions in the BCC’s next forecast. Commenting on the forecast, Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “Our latest outlook suggests that the loss of momentum in the third quarter was more than just a temporary blip, with UK growth forecast to be more subdued for a sustained period as supply disruption, staff shortages and surging inflation limits activity. “The downgrades to our forecast reflect a moderating outlook for key areas of the UK economy, including consumer spending and trade. Consumer spending is likely to be more restrained than expected over the near term from a combination of negative real wage growth and stretched household finances amid rising inflation. “Trading conditions for UK exporters are expected to remain difficult over the forecast period with the lingering impact of Covid and Brexit expected to weigh on trade flows for some time to come. “While our latest forecast suggests that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later, with the current inflationary surge largely driven by supply side constraints and global price pressures, raising rates is likely to do little to curb the current spike in consumer prices. “The risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. The Omicron variant could stall the recovery if it triggers a prolonged reluctance among consumers to spend or a renewed supply shock by exacerbating current staff shortages through a new ‘pingdemic’ and driving more supply chain disruption.” Responding to the forecast, Hannah Essex, Co-Executive Director the British Chambers of Commerce, added: “It’s clear that the UK economy is not out of the woods yet. There remains a great deal of uncertainty for businesses as the arrival of the Omicron variant adds to the difficulties they face alongside rising costs, supply chain disruption and labour shortages. “Since the summer, we have been calling for the Government to give firms a clear contingency plan should restrictions once again become necessary to protect public health. If firms are to weather more challenging conditions in the next few months, they need to have confidence that support will be provided to those facing a significant impact on their ability to trade, including reduced footfall. “It is also more vital than ever that the Government’s Supply Chain Advisory Group and Industry Taskforce start to provide some practical solutions to the supply and labour shortages that are continuing to weigh down on the economic recovery. “Our disappointing forecast for exports underscores the need to address the key pressures facing traders. The UK-EU trade agreement needs to be built upon and applied in ways which cut the current red tape, costs and burdens on businesses. Significant issues must be resolved so that exports can become a driving force in our recovery from the pandemic. “With the planned rise in National Insurance yet to take effect businesses are facing a continuing squeeze on their cashflow. There should be no further policy measures that add to the upfront cost of doing business for the remainder of this Parliament to give firms room to recover.” Key points in the forecast:

  • UK GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 downgraded from 7.1% to 6.8%, and 5.2% to 4.2% respectively. UK GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been upgraded from 2.1% to 2.3%
  • Following the Q3 2021 growth of 1.3%, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth forecast at 0.5% in Q4, (down from our previous forecast of 1.6%)
  • Household consumption is now forecast to grow at 4.0% in 2021, 6.9% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, down from 5.5% in 2021, 7.6% for 2022 and 2.8% in 2023 in our previous forecast
  • BCC expects UK exports to decline by 2.8% in 2021, before growth of 4.9% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, compared to import growth of 1.2%, 6.2% and 3.1%
  • Business investment forecast is for a decline of 0.6% in 2021, before growth of 5.1% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023
  • BCC expects a UK unemployment rate of 4.5% in 2021, 4.1% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023, compared to the previous forecast of 4.9%, 4.7% and 4.4% respectively
  • CPI inflation is expected to peak at 5.2% in Q2 2022. Inflation is then expected to drop back to the Bank of England’s 2% target in Q2 2023
  • UK official interest rates are expected to start rising in February 2022 (15 ppts), followed by a second-rate rise (25 ppts) in November 2022. A further interest rate rise (25 ppts) is expected in 2023

In terms of sectors:

  • Growth in manufacturing output has been downgraded from 8.6% to 6.8% for 2021 and from 5.1% to 3.0% in 2022. Expected growth in 2023 has been upgraded from 2.0% to 2.5%
  • Growth in construction output has been downgraded from 13.8% to 13.7% for 2021 and from 3.8% to 2.9% in 2022. Expected growth in 2023 is unchanged at 2.8%
  • Growth in services output is forecast at 7.0% in 2021 and 2.0% in 2023, unchanged from previous forecast. Expected growth in 2022 has been downgraded from 5.6% to 4.8%

UK Transition: International Trade November update and upcoming January changes 2022

November Update and future changes for January 2022 On 31 December 2020, the UK left the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union. This has meant change for business and for citizens, including new processes and requirements. The first phase of such changes came in on 1 January this year. The Government put in place the staffing, infrastructure, and IT to support this. On 14 September 2021, the Government announced changes to the timetable for introducing import border control processes in the Border Operating Model. The existing controls that were introduced on 1 January 2021 will continue to remain in place. This includes export requirements for all goods and full customs declaration requirements for controlled goods at the point of import. Businesses have faced a range of challenges over recent months as they recover from the global pandemic which has impacted supply chains across Europe. This is being felt particularly by the agri-food sector, where new requirements on importing products of animal origin were due to be introduced in October 2021. Rather than introduce these controls at this time, the Government has listened to those who have called for a new approach to give businesses more time to adjust. Under the revised timetable: • Full customs declarations and controls will be introduced on 1 January 2022 as previously announced, although Safety and Security Declarations will now not be required until 01 July 2022. • Pre-notification requirements of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) goods, which were due to be introduced on 01 October 2021, will now be introduced on 01 January 2022. • From 01 July 2022, certification and physical checks will be introduced for: – All remaining regulated animal by-products. – All regulated plants and plant products – All meat and meat products. – All remaining high-risk food not of animal origin. • From 01 September 2022, certification and physical checks will be introduced for all dairy products • From 01 November 2022, certification and physical checks will be introduced for all remaining regulated products of animal origin, including composite products and fish products. • High-priority plants and plant products checks will transfer from place of destination to designated BCPs and control points from 01 July 2022. • Live animal physical checks will take place at designated border control posts where a facility is operational at the point of entry. Where there is no designated BCP, checks will remain at destination for other ports of entry until sufficient BCPs are operational. Checks at Sevington inland BCP and designated airport BCPs will commence from 01 July 2022. This will provide businesses with further time to prepare for changes at the border and minimise disruption as the economy gradually recovers, as the Government recognises the scale and significance of the challenges businesses have been facing in dealing with the impacts of coronavirus whilst also being asked to adjust to the new requirements. We will continue to give businesses the support they need to trade effectively with the EU, including through export helplines, webinars with experts and support via our network of 300 international trade advisers. For the January 2022 changes you can view the Border Operating Model on the link below or download the pdf: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1034308/20211117_November_BordersOPModel_Final.pdf Our International Training dates for 2022 are here – so make sure you book your places early to avoid disappointment. If you would like to book a place or you have any questions then please get in touch with the International team on: export@norfolkchambers.co.uk You can view a full list of our upcoming training dates in 2022 here