Chamber News

The BCC is receiving numerous requests, from both national broadcast and print media, for businesses with operations in Scotland who are willing to speak on-the-record about the impending referendum. (We have two outstanding requests from the Sunday Times and BBC national news).

The BCC continues to maintain a strictly neutral stance in the debate, but recognises that some businesspeople may want to give voice to their views on the issues that are under the media spotlight – including:

• Whether companies have moved domicile from Scotland to elsewhere in the UK;
• Whether any have moved funds or capital
• Whether any have purchased or leased alternative premises
• How have company boards revised their assessments of risk around the Scottish independence referendum

If you are a businesses who feel very strongly about any of the above issues and who would want to speak on the record, please contact the press office at:

Lisa Morrison –l.morrison@britishchambers.org.uk Nick White –n.white@britishchambers.org.uk

It is essential to justify every decision to invest in promotional or marketing activity based on potential return or coverage (ROI). You may be reluctant to spend on marketing activity, but cutting back on this will have an effect on your business. Exhibitions can be seen as a large investment, particularly by small and medium-sized businesses, but by investing in the short term, you can reap the benefits in the long term, turning the leads collected at an exhibition into loyal customers.

David Palmer, Head of Sales at Green Duck and regular exhibitor at B2B agrees “Even when you factor in our time, as well as the cost of our stand, the return far outstripped our investment. Our Training and Recycling divisions came away with significant sales from B2B.”

So, do you have a sales plan for success at exhibitions? What are you looking to achieve by being there? Below are my top tips to make sure you’re sales savvy for your next exhibition.

1. Decide why you are exhibiting and what you want to achieve. Have some specific, measurable targets in mind. For example, get 30 qualified sales leads or conduct 50 research interviews.

2. On average 75% of visitors to an exhibition are there to buy or plan to buy in the future – use this to your advantage & have a post event follow up strategy. Get all the contact details and information you can from your prospect.

3. At the show, let people know you are there, advertise. Every exhibitor at B2B has the opportunity to advertise for free in a supplement in the Eastern Daily Press, printed 49,000 times and circulated digitally. Read more about the promotional package here.

4. Conduct a show debrief with the stand team and identify what went well and what didn’t. Be sure to learn from each experience and put this into place for your next exhibition.

Bob Prior, Sales and Marketing Director at Heritage Contract Services goes further ‘On our stand at B2B we had virtually no ‘down time’ because we were busy all the time. We trained and prepared for it, and it paid off. Because we had the opportunity to engage with them our visitors said they had a terrific experience. Being at B2B generated real business, and we still have active leads that came from it. Put simply, for us B2B meant business’.

If you’re exhibiting at our B2B Exhibition on 15 October, make sure you visit our Exhibitor Toolkit page. It is FULL of ways to help you promote your stand and maximise your promotion. 80% of stand success is down to staff, so train them. We are running a FREE Chamber Session on Exhibiting Success on 30 September, full details here

If you haven’t booked your stand at The B2B Exhibition 2014, there’s still time. We are now over half full so if you’re looking to be at B2B, complete your stand booking form today. For more information about The B2B Exhibition 2014 click here.

As the Great Eastern Rail Campaign gathers momentum, New Anglia LEP is writing to over 200 business leaders across Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex asking for their personal support for greater investment in the Norwich to London main line.

More than 650 rail passengers and businesses have already signed up to the campaign at newanglia.co.uk/gerailcampaign and over 60 companies have posted comments on why a quality service is vital to them.

The LEP, the region’s MPs, business and rail leaders are heading a Taskforce calling for a faster, more reliable service. The Taskforce is due to report to Government in November making the strong economic case for investment in the line.

To ensure the case is as robust as possible, business leaders are being asked to provide their personal signatures in support of the campaign. The letters are being sent to all sectors from retail and tourism to manufacturing and financial services.

“We are grateful for the support we have already had for the campaign, but personal endorsements from those who suffer the real economic consequences of a poor train service is compelling and it gives us further solid evidence to take to Government in the Autumn,” said Mark Pendlington, chairman of New Anglia LEP.

The Chambers of Commerce from across the three counties have all endorsed the campaign and have received messages of support from many of their members.

Caroline Williams, CEO of Norfolk Chamber of Commerce said: “Results have shown that a strong business voice helps strengthen the case for investment to Government. The Norfolk Chamber and its partners have been lobbying for key rail improvements, but it is also important for individual businesses to be seen and heard. We would encourage business leaders to participate fully in this campaign as it make good businesses sense.”

To view the Norfolk Chamber’s campaign message click here

Today (Monday) the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) is publishing its Business Manifesto – ‘A Business Plan for Britain’. The Manifesto reflects the expectations of business communities across the UK, and the measures they require from any incoming government in 2015 in order to help Britain fulfil its true economic potential.

The business group, which represents thousands of businesses of all sizes across the UK, has identified seven core themes that must be at the heart of any plan for government, to ensure Britain becomes ‘a more confident, more enterprising, and more skilled trading nation’. The BCC manifesto issues a clear call to all political parties to make these priorities for growth a reality.

Commenting, John Longworth BCC Director General said:

“The decisions taken during the term of the next Parliament will have a profound impact on the UK’s ability to grow. We need a business plan for Britain, with governments across the UK focusing their attention on creating the best possible environment for growth and enterprise.

“Over the next five years, we can become a more confident, more enterprising, more skilled trading nation that is capable of standing on its own two feet – or retreat into slow but very real decline. A Britain built for growth is a Britain where government decisions are relentlessly pro-growth; business policies are fit for the long term; local business communities are empowered; and the machinery of national and local government works with and for business.

“Our Business Plan for Britain is practical, pragmatic and achievable. We call on the next UK government, the devolved administrations, and local authorities to work together and with us in a true partnership to make our plan a reality, and lead Britain into a more prosperous future.”

Caroline Williams CEO Norfolk Chamber of Commerce said:

“Norfolk Chamber members have had a significant input into this Business Manifesto and it does reflect many of their expectations. We are now working with our local partners on ‘A Business Plan for Norfolk’ which will highlight our needs and aspirations to local and national partners within the public and private sectors. Norfolk businesses will provide jobs and drive the economy forward but what th Plan will do is to highlight what barriers need to removed and what the opportunities are for the future”

RETAINING THE BEST UK TALENT AND DEVELOPING THE NEXT GENERATION

Nurturing the business leaders of tomorrow, preparing young people for work and investing in the skills and prospects of those already in work are essential to the UK’s competitiveness.

This includes:

Introducing a Childcare Contribution Scheme that helps talented people stay in work – increased financial support for working parents to access childcare, thereby allowing more businesses to retain and develop staff while they start families.

• Soaring childcare costs mean that many parents are forced to drop out of the workforce to look after their children. If this is not addressed by the next government, together with measures to boost the number of childcare places available, the UK could lose out on future talent that will help to drive economic growth.
• All working parents with a child under school-age would be eligible, and would be given the funding upfront by government through a voucher scheme.
• The primary earner would start paying back the government contribution at six per cent of their gross income above the income tax personal allowance (£10,000 for 2014-15). An interest rate of three per cent above inflation would be applied.

GROWING BRITAIN’S GLOBAL TRADE POTENTIAL

Removing barriers to trade, building international networks and investing in our export skills base will support UK businesses to take on the world

This includes:

Calling for a more ‘pro-business’ Home Office that actively supports British firms by reducing bureaucracy, costs and delays for foreign business visitors, skilled individuals seeking to work in the UK, and British nationals seeking to renew passports from overseas – thereby attracting the best talent and investment from overseas and helping British firms link with customers, investors and business partners.

• Unless the next government adopts migration and visa policies that support business and economic needs, the UK will lose out on business deals and the ability to attract the best talent and investment from overseas.
• Introduce a ‘fast-track’ passport issuance scheme for British exporters and global traders overseas – enforcing a maximum turnaround of four weeks so Britain’s exporters can respond to business opportunities quickly.
• The BCC is also calling for a more pragmatic approach to visa issuance for foreign students and skilled workers – to ensure the visa system addresses economic need, rather than shut out individuals who can make a real contribution to growth.

STRENGTHEN BRITAIN’S INFRASTRUCTURE TO REACH A WORLD CLASS STANDARD

A world-class economy needs world-class infrastructure, and businesses need certainty that crucial improvements will actually be delivered.

This includes:

An irreversible decision to build new aviation capacity following the publication of the Airports Commission’s report – so UK businesses have the international connectivity for passengers and goods to compete on the world stage.

• Businesses across the UK need more aviation capacity and would like to see this delivered by expanding existing airports, rather than building entirely new ones. This is why we supported the Airports Commission’s recent decision to reject plans for a new airport in the Thames Estuary.
• But additional capacity should not be limited to just one airport, and any viable expansion option should be allowed to proceed.
• However, if the Commission only gives the green light to one new runway at Heathrow or Gatwick, it is absolutely crucial that politicians then ensure it is delivered.
• An aviation strategy should involve the strengthening of regional airports as well as airports in the South East. This will boost economic growth in the regions, help to relieve capacity shortages during extreme weather and provide business and holiday travel for people locally.

DRIVE DOWN BUSINESS COSTS AND TAXES

Simplifying the UK tax system and reducing the taxes firms pay even before they generate a profit, will boost businesses competitiveness, investment and jobs.

This includes:

Freezing business rates for all companies until 2017’s planned full revaluation of premises – plus a thorough review and reform of the broken business rates system by 2022 – UK firms face the highest business property tax bills in Europe, and the current system is at odds with the government’s ambition to have one of the most competitive tax systems in the G20.

• Abandon up-rating of business rates until the 2017 revaluation, with HM Treasury working with all three devolved governments to ensure the freeze is UK-wide.
• Commit to a thorough review of the broken business rates system to be completed in 2017 and implemented by 2022 that delivers an internationally competitive local tax system.

SUPPORT LONG-TERM BUSINESS INVESTMENT

Promoting access to finance and backing investors in dynamic businesses will support the rebalancing the UK economy so badly needs.

This includes:

Implementing the findings of the planned Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) market investigation into SME banking, and review restrictions for new SME finance providers – to promote competition in the sector and restore trust, transparency and relationships between lenders and businesses.

• The planned CMA investigation must be wide-ranging and should be used as an opportunity to tackle the many concerns businesses have raised around banking and growth finance. Customer service, switching, lending and other business banking services must be examined as part of the review.
• There must be a commitment to reviewing SME market restrictions for potential finance providers, such as easing capital limits for building societies and helping to reduce barriers for new crowd funders and providers of asset finance.

DELIVER A NEW SETTLEMENT FOR BRITAIN IN EUROPE

Making the economic opportunities of the European trading bloc work for business, and ensuring clear safeguards for Britain against unwanted further integration will be critical for our future success.

This includes:

Securing safeguards for the UK and other non-eurozone countries in future EU decision-making – so that as eurozone countries look to integrate further, a new architecture is put in place to ensure non-eurozone states are not disadvantaged in the future governance of the Single Market.

• The UK should work with other non-eurozone countries in seeking assurances that decisions relating to the single market will continue to be made by all member-states.
• The UK should lead efforts to complete the Single Market, in particular the single market in services. Compared to trade in goods, the internal market for services has barely got off the ground, much to the UK’s economic disadvantage.
• Existing EU legislation should be fit for purpose. New proposals must avoid unnecessary regulatory burdens for UK businesses and must add value to ensure the UK remains competitive.

PLACE BUSINESS AT THE HEART OF LOCAL GROWTH

Giving businesses a greater say in local decision-making will boost the economies of our cities, towns, and counties.

This includes:

Guaranteeing a Business Ratepayers’ Vote on local economic strategy and how it is funded – including a vote on any proposed changes to local business taxation – to ensure that plans for an area’s future have the support and input of the whole of the business community.

• Giving businesses a greater say in decision making at a local level would make local authorities more sensitive to business issues and costs, and ensure local economic plans are genuinely designed to boost business growth.

Commenting, John Longworth BCC Director General said:

“The decisions taken during the term of the next Parliament will have a profound impact on the UK’s ability to grow. We need a business plan for Britain, with governments across the UK focusing their attention on creating the best possible environment for growth and enterprise.

“Over the next five years, we can become a more confident, more enterprising, more skilled trading nation that is capable of standing on its own two feet – or retreat into slow but very real decline. A Britain built for growth is a Britain where government decisions are relentlessly pro-growth; business policies are fit for the long term; local business communities are empowered; and the machinery of national and local government works with and for business.

“Our Business Plan for Britain is practical, pragmatic and achievable. We call on the next UK government, the devolved administrations, and local authorities to work together and with us in a true partnership to make our plan a reality, and lead Britain into a more prosperous future.”

ASPIRATIONS FOR 2015-2020

In its Business Plan for Britain, the BCC suggests that by maintaining a relentless focus on policies that deliver prosperity, the next government should set bold and measurable aspirations for 2020:

GDP

The fastest GDP growth rate in the G7 over the life of the next Parliament

Business Investment

The highest level of business investment as a % of GDP in the G7 by 2020

Employment

The lowest rate of youth unemployment in Europe by 2020

Trade

Double the value of exports to £1 trillion by 2020

Budget

Elimination of the UK’s budget deficit and a return to surplus by 2018/19

Taxation

Maintain the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20 and achieve the lowest

business input taxes and charges by 2020

Infrastructure

Rise from 28th to top fifteen in World Economic Forum infrastructure rankings by 2020

Housing

Support private-sector construction rates of at least 200,000 new homes per annum over the life of the next Parliament

Education and

Skills

A workforce with literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skills that rank in the top ten in the OECD Adult Skills Survey by 2020

Competitiveness

Ranked first amongst European countries for overall competitiveness by the World Economic Forum by 2020 (currently tenth overall and sixth amongst European countries)

Pockets of rural Norfolk that struggle to get a mobile phone signal or use mobile broadband are being given the chance to get better connected through a national programme. If you are a business who would benefit from a better mobile signal you need to let your parish council know.

Only 100 parishes across the UK will be selected to take part in Vodafone’s Open Sure Signal Programme, which will benefit those with a Vodafone contract. With competition likely to be fierce, Norfolk County Council is helping parishes to determine whether they will be in a strong position to be accepted onto the programme by creating a simple checklist which they can complete before deciding whether to go through the more lengthy formal application with Vodafone.

Those rural communities that are successful in being included onto the programme by Vodafone would have Open Sure Signal units installed in locations in and around the village which would provide an open 3G network. Any device in range that uses 3G – including mobile phones and tablets – would then automatically connect to it, meaning people would be able to make calls and get online where they couldn’t previously.

The deadline for applications to the Open Sure Signal Programme is 14 October and there can be only one application per community. Anyone interested in finding out more about the programme can visit www.vodafone.co.uk/rural or should speak to their parish council if you want to see your parish being put forward as part of this programme.

Think your company deserves recognition? If so why not enter the awards!

Now in its seventh year, the prestigious awards ceremony takes place on 21st November 2014 in the Assembly Rooms at the Town Hall.

Entries are welcome from the smallest start-ups to established and growing businesses located in, and trading from, the Great Yarmouth area.

By entering, your business will gain public recognition from leading figures in the business community and widespread promotion.

There are a number of new categories this year including the “Great International Growth” Award which is sponsored by Gardline.

This award will celebrate businesses who can demonstrate that finding and developing new growth opportunities abroad has improved their financial performance. This award includes all aspects of international growth including export, geographical expansion and acquisition.

The award is open to all sizes of businesses with an operating base in the Great Yarmouth Borough Council administrative area achieving export growth or an increase in revenue from overseas operations since April 2009.

Norfolk Chamber’s International Trade Team work with a high number of businesses in the Great Yarmouth area, on their export documents. We urge you all to take a few minutes to consider putting yourselves forward for the award.

Time is running out with the deadline being 12 September 2014.

Deadlines for the other categories vary so please have a look at them to ensure you don’t miss out.

The links below will provide further information:

Spirit of Enterprise Awards 2014

Award Categories

Application Form for the International Award

Good Luck!

Commenting on the decision by the Airports Commission to reject plans for a new airport in the Thames Estuary, Adam Marshall, Executive Director of Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

“Businesses across the UK have long said they want more aviation capacity. Nearly all tell us that they want this delivered by expanding existing airports, rather than building entirely new ones.

“For most firms, the idea of starting from scratch – and fundamentally shifting the economic geography of the UK – was filled with risk. Most companies will support the Airports Commission’s decision to focus its attention on the expansion plans put forward by existing airports, rather than the Thames Estuary.

“The interests of UK business would be best served if every airport with commercially viable expansion plans received permission to grow. Unfortunately, politics make that possibility remote. So if the Airports Commission only gives the green light to one new runway at Heathrow or Gatwick, it is absolutely crucial that Britain’s politicians then ensure it is delivered.

“But a future aviation strategy should not just focus on the South East and should involve the strengthening of regional airports throughout the UK. This is vital for economic growth in the regions, and will help to relieve capacity shortages during extreme weather and provide business and holiday travel for people locally.”

The Quarter 2, 2014 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) reported that manufacturing and service sector figures had continued their growth with sales and export statistics showing an upward trend.

Caroline Williams CEO of the Norfolk Chamber of Commerce said: “Business confidence in Norfolk and across the East of England continued to grow. The vitality of the Norwich retail sector continued; with John Lewis holding 2nd place in the UK John Lewis store rankings for sales. Unemployment figures across the Eastern region fell with, Great Yarmouth reporting JSA claimants at their lowest levels since 2005.”

The British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) is used by the Bank of England and the Chancellor to plan the future of the UK economy.

Fieldwork for the QES has already started! Your feedback is very important and the survey takes less than 3 minutes to complete, so please take the time to complete it. Your input and opinion will help ensure that Norfolk has a voice.

The completion deadline is: Monday 15th September 2014

Click here to complete the survey.

• BCC upgrades 2014 GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.2% – the highest growth rate since 2007
• Growth forecast for 2015 upgraded from 2.7% to 2.8%, but remains unchanged for 2016 at 2.5%
• First increase in official interest rates to 0.75% expected in Q1 2015
• GDP growth will continue at a strong pace of 0.8% in Q3 2014
• Exports of goods and services downgraded: from 1.9% to 0.8% for 2014, from 4.2% to 4.1% for 2015
• John Longworth: “We must ensure the stellar growth in 2014 is not a flash in the pan”

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has today (Thursday) upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for this year and next year – from 3.1% to 3.2% in 2014 and from 2.7% to 2.8% in 2015. With expected growth of 3.2%, 2014 will be the first year since 2007 that growth will have exceeded 3%. This is largely due to stronger employment figures and higher expected growth for Q3 and Q4 2014 than previously forecast in May.

The business group, which represents thousands of companies across the UK, is forecasting a moderate slowdown in growth from 2015, with its prediction for 2016 remaining unchanged at 2.5%. This reflects a deceleration in household consumption and falling public spending as a share of GDP. BCC Director General John Longworth says we must do everything possible to ensure the strong growth in 2014 is not a ‘flash in the pan’. He calls the expected slowdown in 2015 and 2016 a ‘warning sign’ for the UK, which is currently too reliant on consumer spending as a growth driver.

ECONOMIC FORECAST – OVERVIEW

• The BCC is raising its UK GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.2% in 2014, and from 2.7% to 2.8% in 2015.
• Upgrades for 2014 and 2015 are mainly due to: a stronger labour market; higher than expected growth in Q3 and Q4 2014; and upgraded ONS estimates for year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2014.
• For 2016, the BCC’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.5%.
• The first increase in official interest rates is expected in Q1 2015 to reach 0.75% – unchanged since our last forecast in May.
• The BCC expects modest increases of 0.25 percentage points, with interest rates reaching 1.25% in Q4 2015 and 2.25% in Q4 2016.
• After official rates start rising in 2015, household consumption will slow markedly. But consumption will still contribute to GDP growth more than other areas of the economy.
• The UK unemployment rate is forecast to fall from 6.4% in Q2 2014, to 5.5% in Q2 2015, 5.0% in Q2 2016 and 4.9% in Q2 2017.
• The new forecast for exports of goods and services has been downgraded for the next two years: from 1.9% to 0.8% for 2014, from 4.2% to 4.1% for 2015, and remains unchanged at 4.6% for 2016.
• The downgrade in exports is due to the lower than expected figures for Q2 2014. The ONS also revised down its historical figure for exports in 2013, from 1.9% to 0.5%.

Commenting, Caroline Williams, Chief Executive if Norfolk Chamber said:

“Business confidence in Norfolk continues to grow. With increased certainty surrounding the local economy, businesses feel able to invest, however there is still room to grow, as the number of organisations operating at full capacity remains low. The UK is now one of the cheapest manufacturing locations in the Western hemisphere, according to a report from the Boston Consulting Group and many Norfolk businesses are reporting strengthening order books for overseas sales. The Norfolk service sector remained on trend and grew in July 2014 and unemployment figures across Norfolk showed further reduction. The Norfolk business community continues to strive towards economic growth.”

Commenting, John Longworth, Director General of the BCC said:

“Our forecast confirms that Britain has become one of the fastest-growing developed economies. We are leading, rather than following, other major economies when it comes to short-term growth. Businesses up and down the country should be congratulated for their hard work and determination in driving the UK recovery despite a number of international and domestic challenges.

“The task at hand is to ensure that the stellar 2014 growth is not a flash in the pan. We need to invest and export more, innovate, and build. It is disappointing that we have downgraded export growth for the next two years as a strong international trade performance is key if we are to steer away from a reliance on consumer spending. While business investment is forecast to grow strongly over the next three years, it will be growing from a low base. To sustain investment momentum into the future, the government and the Bank of England need to give businesses the confidence they need to invest by keeping official interest rates low for as long as possible. Any future rate rises must be gradual and modest.

“The UK must aim higher than accepting growth rates that simply go back to where they were before the recession, or worse – fall even lower. If we are to maintain a world-leading growth performance, we need a long-term partnership between government and business – with ministers unblocking infrastructure projects and improving access to finance so firms across the UK can invest, create jobs and export. We have a wealth of impressive and enterprising businesses in the UK, and there is no reason why a 3% growth rate should be the height of our ambitions.”

David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC, said:

“Though our GDP forecasts have been upgraded for the next two years, we are predicting a slight slowdown in the pace of growth from next year. This reflects a deceleration in household consumption, and falling public spending as a share of GDP. Together, these factors will more than offset the increased contributions to GDP growth from investment and trade.

“We predict strong growth of 0.8% per quarter in the second half of this year. But as interest rates start to rise in 2015, indebted households with mortgages will face increased financial pressures, and much weaker household consumption will act as a drag on growth. To maintain our world leading performance, we may have to look to other sources of growth. Greater efforts to boost exports and investment, and avoiding premature interest rate increases, will ensure that the recovery is sustainable and that the pace of growth can strengthen in the future.

“The UK recovery remains on course and we are now outperforming other major economies. But many potential obstacles remain up ahead. Geo-political uncertainties such as Ukraine and the Middle East and sluggishness in the eurozone will remain serious challenges for some time. It is therefore doubly important to address the risks that we can tackle, such as the UK’s huge current account deficit. To continue driving the recovery, businesses need a stable and supportive environment that encourages enterprise, with low interest rates.”

OTHER ELEMENTS FROM WITHIN THE FORECAST

Main components of demand

• We expect growth in household consumption to strengthen to 2.9% in 2014, and then slow to 2.8% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016. Our new forecast is higher than in Q2 for 2014 and 2015, and unchanged for 2016.
• Our new business investment forecast predicts stronger 2014 growth than we expected in Q2, but unchanged growth in 2015 and 2016. We expect business investment to record relatively strong positive growth of 10.7 % in 2014, 7.4% in 2015 and 7.4% in 2016. Even so, business investment will only surpass its Q1 2008 pre-crisis peak in Q3 2016.
• Our forecast is that the real net trade deficit will fall from 1.4% of GDP in 2013 to 0.8% in 2016, while the net deficit in current prices will fall from 1.8% of GDP in 2013 to 1.2% in 2016. As in recent years, the progress of net trade will be mainly due to a higher trade surplus in services.

Main sectors of the economy

• The services sector, the UK economy’s long-standing main growth driver, is forecast to record calendar year growth of 3.3% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015, and 2.7% in 2016. The share of services in total UK output is likely to rise a little further in the next few years.
• Our new forecast for total industrial output predicts positive calendar year growth of 2.0% in 2014, 1.4% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016.
• Manufacturing output: Our new forecast envisages positive manufacturing growth of 3.0% in 2014, 1.5% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016.
• Construction output: In full-year terms, we predict construction output growth of 4.3% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.

Official interest rates

• Our new central forecast is that the first increase in UK official interest rates, to 0.75%, will occur in Q1 2015. This timetable is unchanged since our Q2 forecast.
• Further modest increases in official rates can then be expected, in small steps of 0.25 percentage points, with official rates reaching 1.25% in Q4 2015 and 2.25% in Q4 2016.

Unemployment and productivity

• Our new forecast envisages that the UK unemployment rate will fall from 6.4% in Q2 2014 to 5.5% in Q2 2015, 5.0% in Q2 2016 and to 4.9% in Q2 2017. We expect UK unemployment to fall faster, and to a lower level, than we predicted in Q2.
• We are forecasting total UK unemployment to fall from 2.077 million in Q2 2014, to 1.817 million in Q2 2015, to 1.677 million in Q2 2016, and to 1.657 million in Q2 2017 – a net overall fall in total unemployment of 420,000 over the next three years
• We are forecasting that total youth unemployment (people aged 16 to 24) will fall from 767,000 in Q2 2014 (a jobless rate of 16.9%), to 636,000 (a jobless rate of 13.8%) in Q1 2017, a net fall of 130,000
• Productivity: Our forecast envisages modest increases in productivity from current low levels. However, productivity is unlikely to reach its pre-recession level in the next three years.

Public finances

• UK public finances: The OBR forecast, outlined at the time of the March 2014 Budget, is realistic in predicting steady falls in borrowing. But the OBR’s timetable is slightly too ambitious in our view.
• While the OBR is forecasting that UK public sector net borrowing would move into a small surplus in 2018/19, our view is that achieving this aim this would take one to two years longer.

Inflation

• In annual average terms, we are forecasting annual CPI inflation at 1.8% in 2014, 1.9% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016. In Q2 we predicted 1.9% in 2014, 2.0% in 2015, and 2.1% in 2016.

On Thursday 21 August over 60 delegates joined us for an evening of fashion, networking and a lot of fun! This year’s Look the Business was held at Jarrold in their newly refurbished Benji’s cafe with Norfolk Chamber being one of the first to hold an event there.

The evening got started with a fun networking activity called Who Am I? Each delegate had a sticker with a famous person’s name on their back and they had to guess who they were in teams asking only yes or no questions, while indulging with a glass of wine and delicious canapés being served.

Andrew Thorpe, Finance Director at Jarrold talked to the delegates about how Jarrold has positioned itself to compete successfully in the increasingly popular multi-channel retailing. He explained that a combination of fantastic staff, increase of online presence, locally sourced products as well as an outstanding reputation that can bring in global brands has helped to make them stand oput in the marketplace.

It was then on to the much anticipated part of the evening the skincare demo and fashion show. Beauty experts from Clinque let the delegates try out some testers and a new product – sonic brushes. This led onto the fashion show, where delegates got to see three styles; casual, smart/casual and special occasions modelled by both males and females from Jarrold.

The event finished with an exclusive hour for the delegates to go shopping along with a 20% discount for that night only. There was such a great buzzing atmosphere all evening with lots of delegates tweeting.

To view more photo’s from this event visit ourFacebookorGoogle+page.

Our next After Hours event is Gizmos & Gadgets on 18 September at John Lewis. A new exciting event filled with all the technology know-how you could ever need in business. With HP, Google & Sony all providing you with the chance to have a go with some of the most recent technology products. Sponsored by Customised Ltd.To book your place or for more details clickhere.

Chamber members at the ‘Look the Business’ event at Jarrolds in Norwich showed their support for the Great Eastern Rail Campaign last night.

The Norfolk Chamber has been lobbying collectively with its partners for years for an improved Norwich to London rail service but the campaign took a significant positive step forward with the production in 2009 of the ‘Once in a Generation Rail Prospect for East Anglia’. Chamber members achieved a breakthrough in 2013 when at a Norfolk Chamber event the Chancellor George Osborne announced the creation of a Taskforce to deliver the Norwich in 90 campaign.

This Taskforce has been working with Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex and the campaign has been rebranded as The Great Eastern Rail Campaign.

The campaign is looking to achieve:

• A faster and more reliable trains service Norwich to London in 90 mins
• More seats and more improved carriages
• Significant investment to upgrade the track

Caroline Williams CEO Norfolk Chamber of Commerce said: “The Norfolk Chamber membership are passionate about securing an improved rail service. Our economy is really starting to grow and we need the infrastructure to support this growth.

We have a great opportunity of the next couple of months to visibly show the government just how important investment in our railways is to us as the business community and our workforce.

If you are reading this article and have not yet physically shown your support which take only a few moments please do so now. https://www.norfolkchamber.co.uk/great-eastern-rail-campaign

• Annual CPI inflation in July 2014 was 1.6%, down from 1.9% in June
• The largest contribution to the fall in inflation was clothing prices
• The largest offsetting factor came from transport
• Goods price inflation in July 2014 was 0.8%, while services inflation was 2.5%

Commenting on the CPI inflation figures for July 2014, published today by the ONS, Caroline Williams CEO Norfolk Chamber of Commerce said:

“The welcome fall in inflation confirms that the increase in June was temporary and doesn’t signal a new upward trend. While wage increases remain very low and the pound is still relatively strong, we expect inflation to remain below the 2% target for the foreseeable future.

“Although the recovery remains on track, it is still fragile and now is not the time to put it at risk with premature interest rate rises. We must nurture the business confidence we are seeing at present by giving businesses the security of working in a low interest rate environment. The government should reinforce this stable backdrop by introducing measures to help firms access the finance they need to grow, and by enhancing support for our exporters.”