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Chamber Quarterly Economic Survey: UK economic growth softened further in Q1 2016

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey – Britain’s largest and most authoritative private sector business survey, based on over 8,500 responses from firms in Q1 2016 – suggests that growth in the UK economy continued to soften in the first quarter, with most key survey indicators either static or decreasing.

Several key indicators for the services sector – the UK’s main driver of economic growth – fell slightly this quarter, with domestic sales and orders reaching their lowest level for over three years. For manufacturing, domestic sales fell again, and remain low in historical terms.

While some manufacturing sector indicators have shown slight improvements, these increases are from a very low base. Combined with the slight weakening in some areas of the dominant services sector, the Q1 figures suggest a static picture- with potential downside risks for UK economic growth ahead.

Key findings in the Q1 2016 survey:

  • Overall, the figures for both the services and manufacturing sectors indicate continued growth. However, this has remained static across many indicators, and slackened in others.
  • In the Norfolk manufacturing sector there continued to be a decline in both export sales and orders (-25) and (-33) respectively. Domestic sales moved out of negative territory from (-8) in Q4 2015 to (0) this quarter, however home orders fell further to (-9).
  • However, more Norfolk manufacturing firms grew their workforce in the last three months (+2), but those expecting to recruit in the next 3 months declined to (+10) from (+18) in Q4 2015.
  • The Norfolk service sector showed mixed results, with domestic sales falling (+21) and orders remaining static (+11); whilst export sales and orders increased (+9) and (+3) respectively.
  • In both the Norfolk manufacturing and service sectors reported less difficulties in recruiting staff.
  • Confidence in turnover and profitability for both services and manufacturing remains low by historical standards
  • The balance of Norfolk manufacturers intending to increase prices fell sharply, from (+23) to (0) (reversing the rise of the previous quarter). The service sector balance decreased from (+22) to (+18).
  • The balance of firms intending to invest in plant and machinery and training either fell or remained static in the services sector
  • Whilst the number of Norfolk manufacturers investing in plant and machinery rose, but those investing in training fell.
  • Norfolk companies reported increased pressures for higher pay settlements (+37) in manufacturing, (+20) in services). In manufacturing, the level is still higher than before the financial crisis.

A summary of the key national findings can be viewed by clicking here.

Caroline Williams, CEO of Norfolk Chamber said:

“Our latest QES survey results suggest that the Norfolk economy is in a holding pattern. While the majority of the picture is static overall, there are clear indications that economic growth is continuing to soften. From sales and orders, to confidence and investment intentions, many of the Norfolk business indicators are at a low ebb. However there continue to be opportunities and we will continue to support our businesses through these challenging times.”

*Watch now: Norfolk businessed interviewedaboutthe QES results on MustardTV*

Dr Adam Marshall, Acting Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

“The softening environment should be a wake-up call for Westminster. Further action is likely to be needed to support business confidence, encourage trade and underpin investment in the months ahead.”

David Kern, BCC Chief Economist, added:

“These results are disappointing but not surprising. Although GDP growth for the previous quarter was upgraded slightly, our survey points to a slowdown in Q1 2016. This is the inevitable consequence of mounting global and domestic uncertainties, but it is nevertheless concerning that the vibrant and dominant services sector is likely to face mounting challenges in the next few years. The mediocre employment balances are a warning that we cannot afford to be complacent about the continued dynamism of our labour market.

“The improvement in the manufacturing export balances, probably helped by sharp falls in sterling, is welcome. But exports are still weak by historical standards. Our current account deficit has escalated to a record high in 2015 and is likely to remain unacceptably large in the next few years. Britain’s credit rating will be at risk, unless we make improving our trade balance and boosting our exports national priorities.

“In spite of the headwinds facing our economy, Britain has major areas of strength that can make a sustainable recovery possible, if correct policies are adopted. In this survey we report a few setbacks, but UK businesses are very resilient. Our labour market and the services sector remain dynamic, and Britain is still likely to grow faster than most other G7 economies in the next 2-3 years.”

Showcase the best of Norfolk business

From local standout to national champion: BCC Chamber Awards will put best of Norfolk business on the map.

This year, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) are inviting businesses from across the country to take part and showcase their talents and achievements through a series of regional heats, culminating in the national final, which takes place in London on 27 November 2016.

Companies can enter seven categories,covering people development; customer care; business/education; export; and technology.

The Awards will be demonstrating the very best business, highlighting the positive contribution that businesses make to the UK economy and to society as a whole. The categories are:

  • Small Business of the Year
  • Excellence in Customer Service *NEW*
  • Commitment to People Development
  • High Growth Business of the Year
  • Business and Education Partnership
  • Export Business of the Year
  • Best use of Technology

The deadline for entries is midnight on Friday 24 June 2016, the regional winners will be announced on 19 September 2016, with the national winners being announced on 27 November 2016 at a glittering awards ceremony in London. To enter online click here

A welcome to our new member: Premier Travel

Premier Travel is an independent and privately owned local travel agency with 80 years’ experience in making holiday arrangements, and has 17 branches throughout East Anglia. Since 1936 when our bus service first began in Cambridgeshire, we have grown substantially and are now well -established within the region – proudly trading at a range of locations across Cambridgeshire, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk.

Our five Norfolk-based branches are located within Norwich (at Bedford Street and Reepham Road), Dereham, Swaffham & Wymondham and we have been trading in the area for the past eight years – during which time our friendly teams have all built longstanding relationships with their customers and the local community.

At Premier Travel we pride ourselves on our knowledge and expertise – each of our staff are experts in their field and many have travelled extensively around the world; so can offer a first-hand insight to the destinations we sell. In addition, we also provide a fantastic personal service and a book by appointment facility, so you can pop in and speak to one of our experienced staff at a time that’s convenient for you.

As one of the leading independent travel agents in East Anglia, we are able to work with an extensive range of travel companies to bring you the widest possible choice when it comes to your holiday arrangements. Whether it’s a coach ticket, a UK break, a dream wedding overseas or a once-in-a-lifetime round the world trip – we can create the perfect holiday to suit your requirements at a budget to match. We also offer a specialist honeymoon gift list service too, meaning your friends and family can contribute towards part of your special holiday should they choose.

Whilst we can offer every type of holiday to suit your needs, we specialise in creating tailor-made itineraries to a wide range of worldwide destinations; in particular the Far East, Australasia, Southern Africa, the USA and Canada. We also offer a selection of holiday extras to enhance your trip – ranging from travel insurance and airport car parking to foreign currency; available to purchase at excellent rates of exchange, with no commission charged.

Premier Travel is also a member of ABTA so you will benefit from their assistance and Code of Conduct when you book with us, and many of the travel arrangements we provide are protected (please ask us about the protection applicable to your booking) for your peace of mind.

Find out why so many people trust us with their holidays by visiting your local Premier Travel branch, calling our specialist team or emailing us for a quote or further information. You can also find us online by visiting our website:

www.premier-travel.co.uk

Chamber seeks latest business opinion on the EU

On 23 June 2016, the UK will settle the long running question of whether we should leave or remain within the European Union. No country has ever left the European Union before, so no one can predict the end results.

On Friday, 10 June 2016 from 2.30pm – 5pm, Norfolk Chamber will be holding a debate to give the Norfolk business community clear information on the viewpoint for both sides of the argument.

This will be one of the biggest choices facing the British electorate in a generation. We want to give you the opportunity to hear from both the Remain and Leave campaigns, and have the chance to ask for the clear evidence and information that businesspeople need in order to make an informed choice at the ballot box.

As part of the British Chambers of Commerce’s ongoing research programme into business sentiment towards the upcoming referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, the BCC is running amajorpollto measure business attitudes and impacts.The fieldwork for this survey is open from 5 April to 15 April.

Chamber members and the members of the local business community are strongly encouraged to have their say here.The survey should take 3-5 minutes to complete.

The last EU poll from the British Chambers of Commerce, conducted in February 2016, highlighted over two-thirds (69%) of the senior businesspeople in the East of England, confirmed that the outcome of the Prime Minister’s renegotiation was unlikely to change how they will vote. This wasdespite large majorities saying they are familiar with theobjectives of therenegotiation package.

Views varied between categories of business, with those exporting only to the EU expressing the strongest support for “remain”, while those exporting only outside the EU expressing the strongest support for “leave”.

Commenting on the last BCC poll results, Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said: “The findings suggested that for businesspeople, this was a question of in or out- not renegotiation. Business remained divided on Europe, andbusinessleaders’ views reflected the size of their firm and their export interests, rather than the current political debate. They are making rational economic choices based on their own interests.”

So what are the advantages and disadvantages of being a part of Europe? Would Britain be better off staying inside the club or going it alone?

Those in the ‘remain camp’ – the leading group being Britain is Stronger in Europe, highlight that 3 million jobs (one in every ten UK jobs) are linked to our trade with the EU[1] and the UK gets £66 million of investment from EU countries every day[2]. UK workers get vital protections because we’re in the EU: including guaranteed holiday and maternity leave, and protection from discrimination. According to figures from HMRC, 61% of small business export to the EU and 200,000 UK businesses trade with the EU.

Whereas those in the ‘leave camp’ – the main group being Vote Leave, believe that Britain is being held back by the EU, which they say imposes too many rules on business and charges billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little in return. They also want Britain to take back full control of its borders and reduce the number of people coming here to work. They also highlight that leaving the EU would result in an immediate cost saving, as the country would no longer contribute to the EU budget. Last year, Britain paid in £13bn, but it also received £4.5bn worth of spending[3].

For more information and to book to attend the Chamber’s ‘Europe: The Business Debate’ click here. This event is open to members and non members.

[1] Source: Centre for Economic & Business Research

[2] Source: Office for National Statistics

[3] Source: Full Fact ( https://fullfact.org/europe/cost-benefits/)

Norwich Economic Barometer – March 2016

Norwich City Council have released their latest economic barometer. The report highlighted:

Nationally

  • UK inflation remained the same in February 2016 at 0.3%
  • The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI fell below market expectations last month
  • New UK car sales rose to 84,000 for February.
  • The number of workers on zero-hours contracts for the main job rose

Locally

  • Aviva announced that its profits have grown by 20%
  • Building of the Quadrum Institute – a new centre for food and health research to be located at the NRP starts work this month. The anticipated opening will be in 2018
  • Primark have announced plans to expand their store front in June 2016
  • Gnaw, the handmade chocolate company has set itself a goal of adding 15 more world-wide markets this year.

For full details of the latest economic barometer click here.

Future National Living Wage rises must be based on evidence, not politics, says Chamber

On the day that the National Living Wage comes into effect, The British Chambers of Commerce calls on the government to act cautiously as it increases the wage – or risk business investment, productivity, and growth.

Given that companies face a number of up-front costs, there is a risk that some firms could be forced to divert money away from investment in skills and infrastructure, which could hurt the UK’s productive potential.

Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said:

“It is important that all Norfolk businesses, both large and small, understand the new National Minimum Wage regulations to ensure they are compliant with the new regulations which are now in effect. Low pay and low social mobility are challenge to the Norfolk economy, but they won’t be solved just by driving up wage rates. The best way to get a high-wage economy is through better education, training, and investment, by schools, universities and businesses alike.”

Dr Adam Marshall, Acting Director General of the BCC, said:

“As a member of the Living Wage Commission, I saw first-hand how a decent wage can transform people’s lives, as well as their performance at work. So we should celebrate every business that can, and does, make the commitment to pay each and every employee a living wage. That includes a significant majority of Chamber of Commerce members all across the UK.

“However, the government’s new National Living Wage will apply a ratchet effect to all companies’ pay bills, and sits alongside a raft of other high employment-related costs. It is unclear whether the NLW will spur productivity or strengthen businesses, communities or the economy as a whole. While many companies have the ability to increase pay, others will struggle to do so alongside pensions auto-enrolment, the apprenticeship levy, employer National Insurance contributions, and other up-front costs. Some will have to divert money from training and investment to increase pay, which could hurt their productivity. Others may stop hiring altogether.

“In the face of these concerns, the government must make a clear commitment to avoid over-burdening firms when it comes to future increases in the National Living Wage. Future increases must be proportionate, take account of other employment-related costs, and be based on clear and unequivocal evidence.

Great Yarmouth businesses asked for their input on housing strategy

Great Yarmouth Borough Council have extended their deadline for receiving comments on their Housing Strategy to 15 April 2015.

The purpose of the survey is to input into their Housing Strategy, to ascertain whether there is a need for a specific type of housing in the Borough to attract or retain people, or whether housing is a small part of a much larger issue.

They want to discover if the supply of housing has a direct impact on your business, and if so, what type of housing you feel would help address this issue.

The online survey takes just a few minutes to complete.

Cocktails, Canapes & Connections

On Thursday 17th March, we were joined by over 30 members for Cocktails & Canapes at Bond Norwich. The Haig Room provided the perfect setting as delegates networked over a glass of prosecco and in groups of 6 took part in cocktail making masterclasses.

The event opened with an icebreaker to introduce delegates to their group. Placed around the room were images of the three cocktails they would be making: Mojito, Old Fashioned and Pornstar Martini accompanied by a list of ingredients. As a team, delegates had to decide which ingredients on the list made their cocktail.

As the cocktail workshops began, we mixed things up with some speed safari networking which kept the conversations flowing whilst they awaited their turn to put their cocktail making skills to the test.

Here’s what the delegates had to say about the event:

Does this sound like something you’d like to attend? Our next After Hours Event will be a Pub Quiz on Thursday 14th April 2016.Book individually or as a team.

Have your say on Norwich International Airport

Norwich Airport Passenger Action Group (NAPAG) are looking for feedback from passengers using Norwich International Airport, in particular those using the airport for business.

NAPAG are an independent group of passengers who regularly fly from Norwich International Airport and are committed to improving the experience of passengers using this Airport. NAPAG is recognised by and has full access to the airport’s management team.

As a result of previous passenger feedback the airport has installed a covered external waiting area; has reduced car parking fees with the ability to pre-book up to just two hours before arrival; and provided additional comfort seating in both the departure and arrivals areas.

The group also continue to lobby for new destinations and it is now possible to fly from Norwich to Malaga and Alicante year round and very shortly Norwich to Geneva.

This is your opportunity to help shape the facilities and capabilities of Norwich International Airport by completing this short 2 minute survey.

County Council welcomes East Anglia draft devolution agreement

George Nobbs, Leader of Norfolk County Council, has welcomed the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s announcement of a draftdevolution agreement for East Anglia in his budget speech yesterday. The deal is worth more than one billion pounds for East Anglia.

Cllr Nobbs said: “This announcement of a draft agreement for East Anglia potentially sees the start of a profound transfer of powers from Whitehall to this region. I have always believedthat key decisions on public services are best made by locally elected politicians, answerable to the public, rather than distant bureaucrats in Whitehall.

“Each and every council in the region will now debate the draft document as details are worked up. I am personally delighted that this is a deal specifically for East Anglia. This is not a region created by central dictate, it is deeply rooted in English history and has possessed a distinct identity for more than a thousand years.”

The deal has been produced after months of negotiation with authorities across Norfolk and Suffolk, and latterly, Cambridge and Peterborough. The New Anglia LEP is also a signatory.

The draft agreement will now be debated in each of the councils in the region.

Including other local investments confirmed in yesterday’s Budget, the deal would bring over £1 billion to the area for transport, skills and housing as well as new local powers to give the area control over existing pots of Government money.

The current offer includes:

  • Over £1 billion of new money to support economic growth over the next 30 years
  • The region will take control of millions of pounds of multi-year consolidated and devolved transport budget
  • New powers over infrastructure, developing skills for employment, and improving our health and social care system
  • £175 million of capital grant for the East to deliver an ambitious target of new homes in line with national targets
  • The deal would also include the creation of a combined authority for East Anglia, chaired bya directlyelected Mayor supported by a cabinet made up from leaders from the partner authorities

The draft agreement suggests a combined authority be set up across the four authority areas in the East but councils would still keep their sovereignty and deliver local services. It would see the transfer of significant resources and powers from central government to the region but at this stage specifically for infrastructure, housing, economic development and jobs and skills.

Budget 2016: Full Chamber reaction

Giving her reaction to the Budget, Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said:

“Business wanted a steady, workmanlike Budget, and that’s what we got. The Chancellor listened to our calls to avoid higher business taxes and costs – and indeed moved to lower them in a number of areas. He has finally taken real action to lessen the crushing burden of business rates, and sharpened incentives for entrepreneurship and investment.

“While his commitments to key business infrastructure projects are positive, the Chancellor must ensure that they move from the drawing board to speedy construction on the ground. In a softening economy, the combination of sustained infrastructure investment and lower business taxes is important to maintaining the confidence of firms across the country.”

On business rates:

“Businesses will cheer measures to cut the burden of business rates, which hundreds of thousands of firms have to pay before they even turn over a single pound.

“More frequent revaluations will be welcomed, too, but only if a simpler system with fewer valuation errors can be delivered. We would also have liked to see plant and machinery investments excluded from business rates calculations, so we will be pressing for further action on this and other aspects of the system that discourage investment.

“All in all, the rates reforms are a significant step in the right direction, and we will work closely with the government to ensure that they result in real improvements for long-suffering businesses on the ground.”

On the Business Tax Roadmap, Corporation Tax, and Capital Gains Tax:

“The Business Tax Roadmap will help provide a greater degree of certainty as businesses look to plan for the future. Ultimately, the acid test for the roadmap will be whether it makes it easier for businesses to navigate the UK’s complex tax system.

“Cuts to corporation tax and capital gains tax show that the UK is very much open for business. The reduction in capital gains tax in particular will help to encourage entrepreneurial risk-taking in some of our most dynamic young firms.”

On additional investment in HMRC services:

“While businesses continue to express serious reservations about the quality of service provided by HMRC, the additional investment to make it quicker and easier for business people to deal with the Revenue is welcome. We will press for this investment to be geared towards supporting small and medium-sized businesses and making compliance easier.”

On fuel duty:

“We were expecting an increase in fuel duty, so the freeze is good news for businesses, particularly those at the smaller end of the spectrum. The freeze will help keep transport and distribution costs competitive.”

On infrastructure:

“Businesses will be pleased that the Chancellor is moving forward on key infrastructure projects. However, these projects remain at a very preliminary stage, and businesses won’t celebrate exploratory studies and plans that are never realized. Here in Norfolk we want to see our critical infrastructure projects, such as the improvements on the A47 and the Great Yarmouth third river crossing come to fruition are soon as possible.

Norfolk’s largest offshore wind farm sets sail

Vattenfall, the Swedish energy firm, said today it has started development of Norfolk’s largest offshore wind farm.

Recently the wind farm developer agreed with The Crown Estate to take forward Norfolk Vanguard into the planning process with a target capacity of 1.8GW, 47km off the coast. This would generate enough power to meet the annual needs of more than 1.3 million UK households delivering a significant boost to future home grown, low cost, low carbon energy generation.

Recently the UK Government has said it sees the offshore wind sector making an increasing contribution to the UK generation mix with capacity doubling to 20GW by 2030, as costs reduce. Late last year, Vattenfall said it was targeting a tripling of wind power capacity to 7GW across northern Europe by 2025 as it moves to a more sustainable energy business.

Ruari Lean, Vattenfall’s Project Manager for Norfolk Vanguard, said: “Vattenfall wants to work with Norfolk to capture the benefits of offshore wind. There is an opportunity for Norfolk business and securing Norfolk jobs. There is also an opportunity to make a telling impact in the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change.”

Andy Paine, Vattenfall’s Project Director for Norfolk Vanguard and head of UK offshore wind, said: “As the industry grows costs will fall; that’s why offshore wind has a great future in the UK. An industry is emerging in Norfolk and we are convinced that the region is well placed to secure an even bigger role in the sector.”

Vattenfall has also agreed with The Crown Estate to develop Norfolk Boreas, also with a target capacity of 1.8GW. The development of Norfolk Boreas will start in 2017.

Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber of Commerce said: “We welcome the exciting news that Vattenfall have started the development of Norfolk’s largest offshore wind farm. The Norfolk Vanguard project will provide further opportunities and jobs for our region and Norfolk Chamber looks forward to working closely with Vattenfall to achieve their objectives.”

You can find out more about Norfolk Vanguard here