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Chamber News

World trade growth may have peaked

Global export orders show signs of levelling off, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned.

The claim is based on new data published in its latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) which provides “real time” information on developments in world trade compared to recent trends.

By combining several trade-related indices into a single indicator, the WTOI measures short-run performance against medium-term trends.

The latest indicator suggests that global merchandise trade growth will continue to strengthen in the third quarter (Q3) of 2017.

The latest reading of 102.6 is higher than the 102.2 recorded in May this year and that, the WTO points out, suggests sustained momentum for trade growth. The score of 102.6 is, in fact, the highest level reached by the indicator since April 2011.

Although air freight, export orders and container shipping all performed strongly, they were balanced by weaker results in other indices including automobile production and sales.

Export orders are above trend, the WTOI reports, but they appear to have reached a plateau, which suggests that upward momentum in trade growth may have peaked. If that is the case, then trade growth is anticipated to moderate toward the end of the year.

The WTO stresses that, although the indicator suggests how trade might grow in the near future, it is not intended as a short-term forecast.

Rather, it should be seen as something that can help identify turning points and gauge momentum in global trade growth and as a complement to trade statistics and forecasts from the WTO and other organisations.

The two-page World Trade Outlook Indicator can be found here.

Chamber forecast: Fall in sterling failing to lift UK growth

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has today (Friday) slightly downgraded its medium-term outlook for the UK economy over the next few years. While the BCC has slightly upgraded its UK growth forecast for 2017 from 1.5% to 1.6%, its growth expectations for 2018 and 2019 have been cut from 1.3% to 1.2%, and 1.5% to 1.4% respectively.

The leading business group has slightly upgraded its forecast for 2017, driven by a moderately stronger outlook for consumer spending growth in 2017. While inflation remains elevated, it is expected to peak at 3% by the final quarter of 2017. However, inflation is still forecast to outpace average earnings until 2019, eroding real wages and weighing on consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, in future years.

A weaker contribution from net trade and more subdued consumer spending growth were the main reasons for the slight downgrade to the BCC’s growth forecast for 2018. While the outlook for export growth remains unchanged, the rate of import growth is expected to increase, with little evidence that customers are switching from imported goods despite their rising cost. Falling real wages, and a slight weakening in labour market conditions, will see consumers rein in their spending in 2018. The slight downgrade for growth in 2019 reflects a lower contribution from net trade and weaker investment compared to our Q2 forecast.  

The UK economy is expected to remain on a slow-growth trajectory for the forecast period, which reinforces the need for decisive action to boost the domestic business environment. The government must use the Autumn Budget to alleviate the burden of upfront costs facing companies, incentivise investment, and improve infrastructure.

Key points in the forecast:

  • UK GDP growth forecast for 2017 is upgraded to 1.6% from 1.5%, and is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2018 (downgraded from 1.3%), before rising to 1.4% in 2019 (downgraded from 1.5%)
  • Inflation of 2.7% is forecast for this year, and 2.9% and 2.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.  The previous forecasts were for 2.9%, 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. Inflation is expected to peak at 3% in the last quarter of 2017, lower than our previous forecast of 3.4%, due to the slowing growth in input costs
  • Export growth of 3.1% is forecast this year, and is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019. This is unchanged from our previous forecast
  • Import growth forecasts have been upgraded to 2.9% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019, from 2.5%, 1.3% and 1.8% respectively.
  • Consumer spending growth has been upgraded for 2017 from 1.3% to 1.5% but is expected to slow to 0.8% and 1.3% in 2018 and 2019
  • Business investment growth has been revised slightly upward for 2017 and 2018, to 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, but has been downgraded for 2019 from 1.2% to 0.9%, with some firms expected to bring some investment decisions forward
  • Our new forecast is that the first increase in UK official interest rates, to 0.5%, will occur in Q3 2018. This is two quarters later than predicted in our Q2 forecast
  • Looking at sectors, manufacturing has been upgraded from 1.2% to 1.4% in 2017 and is expected to grow at 0.7% and 1.1% in 2018 and 2019. Construction has been revised upwards for 2017, from 1.1% to 1.3% and is expected to grow at 0.7% and 1.0% thereafter. The services sector has been upgraded from 1.7% to 1.8% in 2017, and is forecasts to grow at 1.2% and 1.6% in the following years

Nova Fairbank, Public Affairs Manager for Norfolk Chamber said:

 “While some Norfolk businesses report strong trading conditions, the overall UK economy is treading water, and there is no sign on the horizon of a return to healthier levels of growth.

“The BCC forecast suggests that the hoped-for rebalancing of the UK economy towards investment and export is unlikely to materialize in the medium term. The rising upfront cost of doing business in the UK, the uncertainty around Brexit, and the constraints created by skills gaps and below par infrastructure in Norfolk collectively outweigh any benefit arising from the recent depreciation of sterling. A cheaper currency does not automatically mean an export boom, no matter how some politicians and commentators will it to happen.

“The Norfolk business community needs to see action to boost confidence on two fronts: Brexit and the business environment here at home. A comprehensive Brexit transition deal, and a swift shift to focus on the future UK-EU trade relationship, are needed this autumn. Norfolk also needs an Autumn Budget that pulls out the stops to support business growth, at a time of significant uncertainty and change.”

Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the BCC, said:

“The changes to our growth forecast suggest that the UK economy is likely to remain on a low-growth trajectory, and will be marginally smaller at the end of the forecast period than we predicted in the second quarter.

“It is increasingly clear that the post-EU referendum slide in the value of sterling has done more harm than good. Inflation is being driven by the sizable increases in the cost of imported raw materials over the past year, and is expected to remain a drag on consumer spending over the near term, with pay growth not expected to outpace price growth until 2019.

“The contribution of net trade to UK GDP growth is not expected to be as strong as we previously predicted, as we see little evidence that the depreciation of the pound is materially boosting the UK’s external position. While the outlook for UK exporters is for modest growth, imports are expected to grow at a faster rate than we previously forecast, with little evidence that consumers or firms are switching away from imports towards domestic alternatives despite their rising cost.      

“Although there remains considerable uncertainty over UK’s growth prospects, the risks to our current outlook are to the downside. On Brexit, our forecast implicitly assumes a relatively smooth exit from the EU. A more sudden departure would be likely to trigger a far more marked weakening in economic conditions.”

Norfolk businesses come together at Norfolk Chamber and Migsolv BBQ

Over 90 businesses came together last week for drinks, burgers and some networking. Norfolk Chamber Gold Patron, Migsolv, kindly hosted this event at their premises on Barnard Road.

Guests were greeted with complimentary ‘goody-bags’ and an open bar.

Throughout the evening delegates were able to attend tours of Migsolv’s high security data-stores to gain an understanding of how they work.

Jason Williams, Business Manager at the Norfolk Chamber said: “This was a fantastic event and we are very grateful to our Gold Patron Migsolv for hosting it. It gave a great setting for lots of productive and interesting networking and the added benefit of good quality food & drink and a very informative tour of the data centre was much appreciated”

UK seeks to cut export tariffs

The Department for International Trade (DIT) has confirmed that it is examining options for reducing tariffs on UK exports.

With concerns having been aired over the impact of a trade deal with the USA on the Scotch Whisky industry (see Brexit sparks fears of whisky galore), the DIT has moved to reassure businesses that it is seeking to make it easier for UK companies to benefit from post-Brexit trading opportunities.

Figures from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) show that whisky, salmon and chocolate remain the UK’s top three export products.

DIT staff are now said to be looking at how future trade agreements, and stronger trade ties with key trading partners around the world, could reduce export tariffs for Scotch Whisky, smoked salmon and other iconic Scottish produce.

Tariffs can, of course, be a significant barrier to trade.

While the DIT says that those on smoked salmon average 13%, in the case of Scotch Whisky, tariffs can be over 150% of the value of the product with similar levels applied to gin.

Currently, any changes to export tariffs require negotiations at EU level. With the UK scheduled to leave the Union in March 2019, the DIT stresses that it is working now to assess which markets offer the most potential for UK export growth post-Brexit.

“Reducing the costs for companies to sell overseas will become one way of further opening up free trade routes and boosting sales,” International Trade Secretary Dr Liam Fox agreed.

The DIT also revealed that it has established 11 working groups to strengthen trade and commercial ties with key trading partners around the world, including: Australia, China, India and the USA.

Spirit of Enterprise Awards 2017 now open for entry

Thiriving Great Yarmouth businesses are invited to step into the spotlight by entering the Spirit of Enterprise Awards 2017, which marks its 10th anniversary this year with the introduction of a special category, Business of the Decade.

Considered the most prestigious annual celebration of business excellence in the Great Yarmouth borough, the annual awards scheme is organised by enterpriseGY, Great Yarmouth Borough Council’s business support service.

Businesses are encouraged to put themselves forward for the various awards by noon on Monday, October 16. The awards are free-of-charge to enter online at www.spiritofenterpriseawards.co.uk and finalists will be profiled in a supplement in the Great Yarmouth Mercury, with winners appearing in a further supplement.

The special anniversary category, Business of the Decade, is open to all businesses in the borough – large or small – regardless of whether they have entered the competition before.

The finalists and winners will be showcased in the press and at a glittering awards ceremony and gala dinner at the Town Hall on Friday, November 17. The media sponsors are the Great Yarmouth Mercury and The Beach.

The award categories are:

  • Business of the Decade
  • Great Manufacturing/Engineering
  • Great New Business
  • Great Business Growth
  • Great Business Idea Great Customer Services
  • Great Family Owned Business
  • Great International Growth
  • Great Investment in People
  • Great Community Contribution

The Spirit of Enterprise Awards help to highlight the borough’s many and varied successful businesses, supporting one of the council’s priorities, which is to work with partners to help champion and enable economic growth and job-creation in the area.

In a joint statement, the council’s political group leaders, Cllr Graham Plant, Cllr Kay Grey, Cllr Trevor Wainwright and Cllr Adrian Myers, said: “The Spirit of Enterprise Awards are this year celebrating 10 fantastic years of recognising and raising the profile of top-performing firms across the borough.

“This wonderful showcase of successful businesses helps to boost confidence in the strength of the local economy, helping to create favourable conditions for investment, sustainable growth and job-creation.

“For the businesses themselves, having the chance to shout about and be recognised for their achievements brings important benefits, including raising their stature and reputation, and boosting staff morale.

“There are lots of brilliant businesses across the borough and we look forward to some strong contenders this year for both the title of 2017 Business of the Year and the special anniversary category of Business of the Decade.

“We must also take this opportunity to thank the 2017 sponsors, including main sponsor Stephenson Smart, without whom this wonderful celebration of business excellence would not be possible.”

Tackling Great Yarmouth’s traffic congestion about to start

Improvement work to reduce traffic jams and delays in Great Yarmouth is due to begin on Fuller’s Hill roundabout on Monday, 18 September. Norfolk County Council is spending £650,000 to create an extra lane on the roundabout by reducing the size of the central island. An additional right-hand turn lane will also be put in on the North Quay approach from the north where often queues are particularly bad due to the volume of traffic wanting to get onto the A47. The work is due to take around 14 weeks to complete and is scheduled to finish by Friday, 22 December. During the vast majority of the works, all roads approaching the roundabout will remain open however they will be down to one lane so people travelling through the area should plan for longer journey times than usual, particularly at peak times. When completed, people can expect fewer delays in the area and shorter, more reliable journey times. It’s hoped that air quality may also benefit, with a reduction in queueing stationary traffic giving off emissions.

Commenting on the improvement works, Nova Fairbank, Public Affairs Manager for Norfolk Chamber said:

“Fuller’s Hill roundabout is a key gateway junction into Great Yarmouth and the improvement to this junction, as well as the forthcoming improvements to both Vauxhall and Gapton Hall roundabouts will deliver much needed relief to some of the traffic congestion, helping towards improving quality of life and supporting the local economy.”

Martin Wilby, Chairman of the Environment, Development and Transport Committee at Norfolk County Council, said:

“The current Fuller’s Hill roundabout simply wasn’t designed to cope with the amount of traffic that is using it today. Adding an extra lane to the roundabout and creating an additional approach lane for A47-bound traffic should make a big difference and help keep things moving, which in turn will benefit local people’s day-to-day lives and the town’s economy.” Drivers heading for Yarmouth town centre or the seafront from the direction of Caister may wish to avoid the roundabout altogether by turning left to stay on Caister Road which then becomes Northgate Street. A sign will be put up before this turning warning drivers that there could be delays ahead. Efforts are being made to minimise the impact of the work on the town, with the peak summer tourist season completely avoided. If at all possible, the County Council will suspend the work and remove the lane closures for the town’s Christmas lights switch-on and Christmas Fair on the weekend of 24 to 26 November. There will be a need to close the roundabout and all approach roads overnight for five nights, these closures will take place towards the end of the works and are necessary to allow the roads to be resurfaced and repainted safely. This work has been scheduled to be carried out overnight specifically to reduce the impact on people who use these routes. No other complete road closures are planned. The Fuller’s Hill roundabout improvement work is part of a multimillion pound programme to transform the Great Yarmouth area over the coming years to make it easier for people to get to and around and make it a more attractive place to live, work and visit. This will help attract future investment and economic development to the area, creating skilled jobs, business opportunities and giving local people a better quality of life. Norfolk County Council has been allocated £9 million by the New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership to make road and transport improvements in the town. Along with the Fuller’s Hill roundabout works, schemes planned in the near future include improvements to North Quay, The Conge and the rail station forecourt. Chris Starkie, Managing Director of New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, said: “These improvements will play a big part in easing congestion for local people, businesses and visitors to the town. When taken as part of the wider £9m project they will have huge benefits for the economy of Great Yarmouth, the surrounding area and our region as a whole.” Signs are already in place near Fuller’s Hill roundabout about the upcoming works and likely delays. Further information on this scheme and those mentioned above will be available shortly on the Norfolk County Council website at www.norfolk.gov.uk/tfgy

Chamber members discuss Norfolk business needs with Norman Lamb MP

Chamber members had the opportunity to highlight and discuss the challenges facing the local business community with Norman Lamb, MP for North Norfolk today (Friday 08 September).

Amongst the topics discussed were Brexit; the need for better broadband and mobile coverage; road and rail improvements; and the skills and enterprise agenda.

Mr Lamb also highlighted his new role as the Chair of the Science & Technology Select Committee and advised that he was interested in hearing from businesses who were looking at AI (artificial intelligence), automation and the social implications of these issues.

On Brexit, the group noted the need for definition on what will happen to the flow of data across borders, following Brexit – in today’s digital world this will be critical to many businesses no matter where they are in the world.  Also of concern was the need for clarity on overseas labour, with many firms facing skills shortages.

Health and wellbeing and how the increasing number of sick days impact on organisations’ productivity was also noted. 

Mobile and broadband coverage was again raised as a considerable challenge to those businesses wanting to be able to take advantage of new technology developments and compete with the rest of the UK.  They noted that unreliable connections act as barriers to growth, which put those companies most in need of support at a competitive disadvantage.

All agreed that more work needed to be done to close the gap between business and education, some of which can be done locally, but more support from central Government was called for to help put more focus on the enterprise.

Commenting on the meeting, Nova Fairbank, Public Affairs Manager from Norfolk Chamber said:

“We are really pleased to welcome Norman Lamb to the Norfolk Chamber office to hear from the local business community.  It is important that our MPs understand the needs of business and the Chamber will continue to ensure our members views are hear loud and clear in Westminster.”

Facebook joins impressive speaker line-up for our Talking Tech conference

Facebook, the world’s biggest social networking site, has been added this week to the impressive programme of national and local speakers at this year’s Talking Technology 2017 conference in September.

The Norfolk Chamber conference on Wednesday 20th September at The Space, Norwich will feature keynote presentations delivered by industry specialists and workshops on the latest tech innovations that will inspire guests to unlock their businesses growth through technology.

Industry experts will be taking to the stage to discuss the future of technology, including tech giants, Facebook, Microsoft, Aviva and local tech pioneers, Ubisend and Prison Voicemail, to name a few.

Joining the expert line-up is John Carr, Team Lead of Facebook’s Small & Medium Business division for the UK and Ireland. He and his team help clients and agencies get the best results from marketing campaigns on Facebook.

John will be leading a 20 minute keynote presentation on ‘Mobile, Visual, Personal – Future-proofing your business with Facebook’ which will focus on how the world is now mobile meaning business is becoming borderless and the importance of a mobile strategy for your business.

To celebrate success stories of local tech firms, guests will hear from businesses in Norfolk who will share their experiences and expertise on digital and technological developments in a series of short ‘Lightening Talks’. These local names include Tech East, Blue Sky Drones, Step into Tech and Foolproof.

Plus attendees will develop practical skills and take away top tips, from ‘how to create digital content’ to ‘user research’, in four 30 minute expert-led workshops, delivered by leaders in their field: Immersive VR, the User Story, Innershed and Integro.

All this, as well as a Q&A Panel, an exhibition featuring some of the region’s best businesses and a networking lunch where guests can collaborate and share ideas with innovators and members of the local business community directly.

Chris Sargisson, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber who will be hosting this year’s event said: “Without the knowledge to embrace technology, many businesses are at risk of being left behind. Talking Technology aims to equip all businesses with the knowledge and digital skills that can be implemented in their growth and development. Make sure you are there to take part in giving technology a Norfolk voice and to discover how to unlock digital growth for your business!”

Book your ticket to an unmissable tech experience by visiting: www.norfolkchamber.co.uk/TalkingTech17. Alternatively telephone 01603 625977 or email events@norfolkchamber.co.uk

Scam alert: Warning sounded over firms that charge for council-tax appeals

Residents across North Norfolk are being warned to avoid paying private companies that charge for appealing against council-tax bands.

North Norfolk District Council has received reports of people being asked to hand over their bank details by these third parties – all for providing a service that is actually free for householders. Employing one of these companies does not help or influence the outcome of an appeal, and is a complete waste of money.

What makes matters even worse in this instance is that some of these third parties are trying to impose a fee simply for filling out a form, regardless of whether the application to lower the council-tax band proves successful or not.

Cllr Wyndham Northam, NNDC Cabinet member for Revenues and Benefits, said: “If you are a council-tax payer and you want to appeal your council-tax band, it is easy to do this yourself and there is absolutely no charge for doing so.

“Some private operators are very clever at selling their services, but signing up with them means paying an unnecessary fee and receiving absolutely nothing in return that council-tax payers can’t do themselves.”

NNDC warns people to be wary of all cold-callers, especially those demanding bank details. People should never hand over their bank details or other personal information in situations such as this and should always make further inquiries if in any doubt.

Roundabout upgrade gets underway

Improvements to the roundabout that connects Dereham Road and Sweet Briar Road begin on Monday (4 September) in the latest Transport for Norwich project to get underway.

Norfolk County Council and Norwich City Council have redesigned the junction, which also links Guardian Road, to reduce congestion in the area.

By increasing the size of the existing roundabout and widening sections of the carriageway, the project is designed to make the junction work more efficiently, improving the reliability of bus journey times and flow of general traffic.

New crossings and widened footways will also mean better facilities for pedestrians and cyclists.

Councillor Martin Wilby, chair of the county council’s Environment, Development and Transport Committee, says: “Upgrading this junction will not only help general traffic flow and bus journey times as they stand but will also increase its potential capacity for the future. Additional improvements for pedestrians and cyclists in the area make the project a great investment for the city’s road network.”

Councillor Mike Stonard, city council cabinet member for transport and vice chair of Norwich Highways Agency Committee, says: “This is a large-scale improvement project which will take several months to complete. We really appreciate people’s patience while work takes place and are confident that all road users will notice the benefits once work finishes. Our team on site will be doing everything they can to keep disruption to a minimum.”

Work is due to continue until April 2018 with a break in the use of traffic management from the week of 13 November until early January to cover the busy run-up to Christmas.

For full details of the scheme, including information on traffic management and road closures, visit www.norfolk.gov.uk/derehamroad.

Notice from Egyptian-British Chamber of Commerce

We have received notification from the Egyptian-British Chamber of Commerce that the Egyptian Consulate will be closed from Thursday 31st August to Monday 4th September for Eid al-Adha. 

All documents received by the Consulate on those dates will be processed as usual on Tuesday 5th September 2017.

Any documents that we receive between this time will be sent for legalisation, but there may be a slight delay with the return time of your documents.

Great Yarmouth Third River Crossing – Stage 2 Consultation

Earlier in 2017 Norfolk County Council undertook a consultation to seek views on congestion issues in Great Yarmouth and to share the emerging preliminary proposals for a Third River Crossing in the town.  

The consultation responses showed an overall support for the scheme, with the majority of respondents saying that:

·         Congestion in Great Yarmouth is either a serious or a very serious issue,

·         The Third River Crossing would make their journey times shorter,

·         Congestion would be greatly reduced by the new crossing.

Since this initial consultation the scheme has been developed further, including examining possible types of bridge and its height. Beginning on 4 September Norfolk County Council will be seeking views on the work undertaken to date so that they can understand the important issues to consider as the scheme is developed further. 

They will be consulting on the current scheme proposals for the Great Yarmouth Third River Crossing, which will allow them to understand the important issues to consider as the scheme is developed further.

Further detailed scheme details will be published along with an online questionnaire between 4 September and 6 October 2017 and consultation events will be held locally.

Norfolk County Council are running a number of staffed exhibitions during this time and you can find out more by visiting the exhibitions at these locations:

Imperial Hotel – 13-15 North Drive, Great Yarmouth, NR30 1EQ

·         Monday 4 September 2017 – 12pm-9pm

·         Tuesday 5 September 2017 – 10am-9pm

·         Wednesday 6 September 2017 – 10am-9pm

·         Thursday 7 September 2017 – 10am-9pm (staffed 2pm-9pm)

·         Friday 8 September 2017 – 10am-9pm

·         Saturday 9 September 2017 – Closed

·         Sunday 10 September 2017 – Closed

Great Yarmouth Library- Tolhouse Street, Great Yarmouth, NR30 2SH

·         Monday 11 September 2017 – 12pm-5pm

·         Tuesday 12 September 2017 – 9am-5pm

·         Wednesday 13 September 2017 – 9am-7.30pm

·         Thursday 14 September 2017 – 9am-5pm 

·         Friday 15 September 2017 – 9am-5pm

·         Saturday 16 September 2017 – 9am-4.30pm (staffed 10am-4.30pm)

·         Sunday 17 September 2017 – Closed

Gorleston Library – Lowestoft Road, Gorleston-on-Sea, Great Yarmouth, NR31 6QU

·         Monday 18 September 2017 – 12pm-5pm

·         Tuesday 19 September 2017 – 9.30am-8pm (staffed 2pm-8pm)

·         Wednesday 20 September 2017 – 9.30am-5pm

·         Thursday 21 September 2017 – 9.30am-8pm 

·         Friday 22 September 2017 – 9.30am-5pm

·         Saturday 23 September 2017 – 9.30am-4pm

·         Sunday 24 September 2017 – Closed

Kings Centre – 30 Queen Annes Road, Southtown, Gt Yarmouth, NR31 0LE

·         Monday 25 September 2017 – Closed

·         Tuesday 26 September 2017 – 12pm-5pm

·         Wednesday 27 September 2017 – 10am-5pm

·         Thursday 28 September 2017 – 10am-8pm (staffed 2pm-8pm)

·         Friday 29 September 2017 – 10am-5pm

·         Saturday 30 September 2017 – Closed

·         Sunday 1 October 2017 – Closed

You can express your views or contact the 3RC team by email on: gy3rc@norfolk.gov.uk

Or you can write to “Great Yarmouth Third River Crossing, Major Projects Team, Norfolk County Council, County Hall – Floor 2, Martineau Lane, Norwich. NR1 2DH”